Wednesday, 14 September 2016

Save your Money

Monday's Worcester winner Mad Money was put in at around Evens for a quick repeat in the 4.50 at Kelso this afternoon.

The beast may of course win again off the 7lb higher mark, after all he is up against some largely disappointing sorts.

He is one of four horses being sent in what I presume to be a large lorry from down 'sarf' and of course has the assistance of the champion (still sounds strange) Dickie Johnson.

However, they are just about the only positives - if you can call them that.

The Worcester race was a dreadful contest which Mad Money was able to dominate from the front, in a change of tactics from his run before at the same venue when he looked pretty laboured.

He jumped poorly that day and dumped his rider three times in points in the spring. He's been on the go since March and I'm not convinced Monday's victory suggested he's just improved a ton out of knowhere.

And while the drop in trip should be 'OK', I doubt if it's in his favour. They'll go a good bit quicker round Kelso and he'll get hassled up front by Up And Go which is likely to put his jumping under pressure.

All in all he looked a truly shocking price last night - I made him 5/2 on my tissue.

The question is, can we find the winner. Not sure. First stop was Amilliontimes, who was a terrible jumper of fences early in his chasing career but has really improved in that department this year and that has been borne out by results.

His hurdles form always suggested he ought to be competitive from a mark of around 110 so I'm not that bothered by an 11lb rise for his last win - the runner-up subsequently proving much better than her mark that day.

Softened ground would be a worry but it looks like they missed much of yesterdays rain, so it shouldn't be an excuse. If they go quick up front that would only aid his hold-up style. He remains the most likely winner for me, but at 3/1 that's about right, certainly no shorter.

There are bigger prices about the others but they all have questions to answer.

Seven Devils has been disappointing and looks plenty quirky enough for now, but the others are of interest. The often moody-looking Up And Go is extremely well handicapped on latent ability and he showed a bit more last time.

That's maybe clutching at straws, but he's been in the doldrums for a while and yet is young enough to bounce back. D McCain continues to bang in the winners and it wouldn't surprise me if he pops up with cheekpieces on for the first time.

I thought Rough Justice did really well behind the well-handicapped Degooch at Sedgefield where he stayed on most doggedly. His overall profile is a worry but this Mullins cast-off has tumbled in the weights and if you can have faith in him backing up that last run he ought to go close.

I don't know much about Is Love Alive but he's pretty unexposed. He clearly has ability but there needs to be a good excuse for his last effort.

If you believe that a three-month break is significant he's another who could go close.

Conclusion; There are too many imponderables to have a bet in the race with much confidence. Indeed I could back four of the six and build a decent case for each at morning odds. The 'public' often puts a lot more emphasis on recent form than they should and this looks a classic example to me. In short, if you like using Betfair then a lay of Mad Money 3 or under is a sound play. If you fancy one of the others, you are getting decent value.

Tissue; 5/2 Mad Money, 3 Amilliontimes, 11/2 Up And Go, 11/2 Rough Justice, 9 Seven Devils, 10 Is Love Alive.

No comments:

Post a comment