Tuesday, 24 November 2020

November 24 - update

As regular readers will know, I have taken the blog somewhat private this season and have teamed up with Josh Wright and his Racing To Profit website.

I have been sending newsletters to those who signed up to his winter service, subscribers also get my knew tipping service and all the goodies that Josh comes up with, be it systems, betting angles and his own write-ups on big weekend races.

Pleasingly, after 24 days of tipping, the service is as of today 45pts in profit to advised stakes and prices given at 9am. No best odds guaranteed is declared, and odds are widely available.

As an example, this clear advice was given out two days ago...

2.08 Exeter

Saint De Vassy 2pts 7/2 (4/1 Hills, Sky, BV)

Trainer Tom Symonds is enjoying a purple patch and this seven-year-old is poised to add to his impressive tally of recent winners.

Unlucky not to be off the mark already, his best form over hurdles came at this track when beaten by a horse now rated a stone higher.

The form of his penultimate start over fences also reads very well, so it will be disappointing if he can't cash in with plenty in his favour. 

As you can see, the price advised was 7/2 and was declared at that even though 4/1 was available to those quick on the draw.

If you sign up to the service I can give you these guarantees;

NO short priced favourites

NO snide each-way bets that could get your account closed.

NO hail-mary long shots 

Each piece of betting advice is thoroughly researched based on my form analysis and personal knowledge of that particular horse from my time at the track.

I believe the windows to this opportunity to bet alongside me, a professional gambler, are closing at the end of November when Josh's 'money back' offer comes to an end. 

This month's success so far is no guarantee of future winnings, although, as someone who focuses on National Hunt racing, I'll be pretty disappointed if we don't add to these profits in the coming months!

If you only wish to read my views on the month's racing in retrospect you can access my newsletters by clicking on the Paypal button on this page.

If you want the full package through to the end of April, this is the link you need.

Thursday, 5 November 2020

Aintree October 25

These are my paddock notes from the meeting at Aintree last month, one of several I was able to attend in October.

If you would like to get access to all my notes, plus my new daily tipping service, please visit Josh's website for a free trial.

A typically informative novice hurdle opened the card and all eyes were on expensive purchase Killer Kane, trained by Colin Tizzard who has had a quiet month thus far.

The son of Oscar is, as expected, a good looking horse and a really sweet mover at the walk, but he looked in need of the run and so it was very encouraging to see him perform so well, jumping cleanly and only running out of steam halfway up the run-in.

It’s not an easy race to weigh up though, the  experienced duo Torn And Frayed and Danny Kirwan are likely to have performed below their official marks, the latter looking harshly treated on 139 going into this.

A big sort that required two handlers, I thought Danny Kirwan looked pretty straight for this reappearance and he’s probably going to struggle to live up to hopes, backing out of things from the last. Surely he’s ready for a switch to fences, but based on this his rating is far too high.

Real Stone wasn’t expected to win this and the outsider is a tall, unfurnished individual who wouldn’t be a likely top-notcher on breeding. He did nothing wrong, but does hold down the level of the form at this stage.

Torn And Frayed is probably a three miler now but he looked pretty straight and he folded tamely, his trainer not banging in the winners as he can at this time of year.

Butte Montana  was made favourite for a Cheltenham bumper 12 months ago but was a big flop here after a market drift, his jumping novicey throughout after looking to need the run beforehand.

For Nuts Well to give weight all round in the Old Roan is a fantastic feat for such a small yard, however this career-best at the 38th time of asking under rules does put the quality of the race under a spotlight.

With so many in with a chance three from home, it was clear they didn’t go much of a pace on ground that was generally considered to be more good to soft than soft, and that may not have suited several in behind.

Certainly not Oldgrangewood, who revels in coming late off a fast pace and he got there far too soon this time, while Clondaw Castle looked to have been delivered with a perfectly timed challenge only to find the winner too strong.

The winner’s superior fitness may have been the difference in the final analysis, and it is the runner-up who makes most appeal going forward, this being only his third outing at the trip.

A nice tall horse with scope who generally jumps and travels well, he should have all the big handicaps in his sights now and may yet develop into a Ryanair type.

Itchy Feet was all the rage on the back of some hot novice form but he’s light on experience and I was disappointed with his lack of physical scope beforehand. A stronger pace would have suited, and maybe a step up in trip will help with his jumping, as I sense he’ll always struggle when it matters most. Perhaps the race didn’t pan out for him and he’ll prove me wrong.

This was Annie Mc’s first go in a handicap over fences and she could be a touch high in the weights for all that she shaped with promise over a trip that now looks on the sharp side. She is a very accurate jumper and a quality mare that should have another productive season.   

The staying handicap chase usually throws up a number of future winners and this year’s renewal is likely to be no different, although in truth there weren’t many beforehand that appealed from a betting viewpoint.

Eventual winner Acey Milan had had a disappointing second season over timber, looking pretty one-paced and using headgear, but after a second wind op this real chasing type came home strong enough to get back to winning ways.

They finished in a bit of a heap again, with Ofalltheginjoints threatening to go and win easily only to run out of puff between the final two fences. A big robust chaser, he was carrying more condition than most and I thought his effort was a fine one, jumping notably cleanly throughout.

Rapper is quite nice looking individual who looks capable of better, although he looked pretty straight beforehand and didn’t seem as well handicapped as some, he can improve in the jumping department and is expected to build on this opening effort.

Diomede Des Mottes was popular in the market and looked an absolute picture, but made numerous errors and never landed a blow. Perhaps something was amiss, but he has a chequered profile and is probably one to be wary of.

Jammy George looked as though he’d come on for the run, but he wasn’t as big as some of the others and his jumping remains a concern, plus he’s pretty one paced.

The 2m4f handicap hurdle was taking by Paisley Park a couple of years back but there was nothing of that calibre on show this time. However, the couple with least exposure came nicely to the fore and will remain of interest going forward.

Jacamar hasn’t had a great deal of fortune this season, shying away from the tapes and forfeiting ground on his latest start, but this big scopey individual looked on great terms with himself and it came as little surprise to see him in the mix after encountering solid support in the ‘ring’.

I thought he won with quite a bit in hand and getting the better of Strong Glance may be no mean feat in retrospect.

Another chasing type, Strong Glance hasn’t been straight forward from the very start of his career but has shown flashes of ability that suggest he’s going to be more of a 140+ type.

Travelling so well in behind runners, he could have done with a much truer gallop and although produced with a timely challenge he probably didn’t run his most efficient race.

If Olly Murphy can channel his ability I’m sure there’s a decent race in Strong Glance this season, maybe over fences which has been mooted, while he could probably deal with a drop in trip provided they go a good gallop.

Point Of Principle has twice run well from this sort of mark and is a pretty solid performer at this level, needing this badly if the paddock was anything to go by and is one to keep an eye on next time.

Those with previous form, either in bumpers or Points, didn’t look that strong ahead of the closing bumper and sure enough it was the unraced Elle Est Belle who came through to win as she pleased under a motionless H Skelton.

The Fame And Glory filly caught the eye with her size and frame, like the stable’s winner in the opener looking rather unfurnished and on the weak side physically.

Given the Listed prizes available to her sex it would be very surprising if she isn’t kept to bumpers this season, as she should make up into a lovely jumper in time.

Drumlee Getaway was very light framed and leggy, Feralkat by contrast big and slow. The bare form may not be anything special, but it was hard not to be impressed by the winner.

Tuesday, 3 November 2020

Tuesday November 3

It's Haldon Gold Cup day at Exeter, which looks to have missed much of the recent heavy rain as they are racing on ground that is officially good, good to soft in places.

Two races went under the microscope and selections have been sent out at 9am this morning, let's hope the ground is nearer good than soft come post time!

In the meantime, here's how you can access my tips this winter plus a whole bunch of other info...

This is your chance to join myself and Josh this winter over at Racing To Profit. 

The perfect jumps package?

Josh's Members Club is the perfect place to be for jumps enthusiasts this winter. There's that mix of opinion/tips you can just follow, part 'magazine subscription', but also stats/trends/previews etc that with any luck help you solve the puzzle yourself. There's also the RTP community, and many a shrewd comment posted to ponder. 

Don't forget you get access to...

Daily Tips/Insight from me, and plenty from Josh...

Big Race previews/thoughts/tips from Josh, usually looking at a couple of the big Saturday handicaps and the spring Festivals.

Trainer stats / systems / starting points

Weekly Big Race trends/ stats /trainer pointers for 2+ big handicaps a week, and all out for The Cheltenham Festival. Hopefully a decent resource for the puzzle solvers out there

Videos - big race previews, weekend reviews and stats research from myself, and much more, inc 'betting better' type content.

Podcasts/Webinars - Josh and I will look to add some content along these lines, maybe racing reviews, how the punting is going, life of a pro etc. There will also be his exclusive 'Notes From The North', but lockdown allowing. In the next few days you'll get access to further pointers from his track visits in October.

The RTP community - which is probably one of the best bits - enjoying racing and the journey together. A friendly place in which to have some racing company, even if just online.

You can trial all of this for a full 30 days for free, with a monthly subscription option, a 'season ticket' and a full 30 day refund period. 

YOU CAN FIND OUT MORE, INCLUDING A VIDEO FROM JOSH, AND SIGN UP HERE

Sunday, 1 November 2020

Sunday November 1

The start of a new month, although unfortunately it's still 2020. However we are grateful for small mercies and racing will continue to go ahead throughout the dark months ahead.

It is looking increasingly unlikely that I'll be able to physically go racing, however I still intend to continue with a twice-monthly newsletter in which I'll be revealing the horses I am tracking closely based on paddock notes from the past and their subsequent form. Use the paypal button on the right if you wish to subscribe.

October was an informative month in terms of how far in front or behind trainers' horses are than is normal at this time of year. I will be sending out a newsletter covering the entire month of October in the next few days once I've added some thoughts from the two-day meeting at Wetherby.

As previously mentioned, the link-up with Josh starts today with my first piece of betting advice which runs at Huntingdon later today. If you want to join up for a free trial here is the link.

With the prospect of less travel, I might have time to post more previews on these pages and maybe some other observations.

Bye for now.