Friday, 16 September 2016

It's a Dun deal

There is quite a bit of interest in the Hexham twilight card today, not least in the 5.05 where Dun Faw Good stands out like the proverbial boil.

I was quite intrigued by his latest start just 11 days ago at Perth where he travelled strongly in a slowly run affair before basically being done for tactical toe.

However if you delve a little deeper into his form you'll see why he's primed for a PB effort over this stiff 2m 4f.

He was third in the 'Heart of All England' nearly 18 months ago, not far behind Cave Hunter who is a nailing good hunter chaser worthy of a 115 rating. A repeat of that form alone would be enough to land this.

Having not seen the track before the age of seven, he's now put together a decent string of point runs, winning twice this year between the flags.

They weren't strong events, but a mark of 91 is more than fair, especially when you consider he has won at Hexham's inner point course and made a pleasing return to rules at the track in June when running ok over an inadequate 2m. Add that to his run here in the 'Heart' - he clearly likes the place.

Good ground suits well and good to soft will be fine - any softer and confidence would be dented.

That aside, he ticks a lot of boxes. There is no front runner in the race so he should be able to dictate from the front, while the icing on the cake is the booking of Jamie Hamilton.

The last time the young claimer replaced Cath Walton on one of the stable's horses was when Central Flame dotted up at Haydock in 2015, improving a stone in the process. I'd be surprised if the promising rider can't extract similar improvement here.

If that's the icing, then the price is the cherry on top. I made him a 5/1 chance tops, but he is trading much bigger this morning.

There are five opponents headed by Blake Dean. I've never liked the horse but he's perked up for Gordon Elliott this summer, winning twice. He got round Sedgefield ok last time over fences but he's not that big and these obstacles can pose more of a problem.

I really didn't make him as short as he is. He's one to take on in this company.

Pekanheim has become disappointing and is now 2/23. He did show a bit more last time but despite winning twice here as a promising young chaser plenty of water has passed under the bridge since then.

Formidableopponent won last time out but went into that race with a 1/25 slate over fences and the horse he beat was 2/39 under rules. There was a distance back to the third and three high up in the betting failed to complete. In short, it was a poor race and he's a moody cuss unlikely to back that up.

Poetic Lord is arguably well treated but this flat bred hasn't shown anywhere near enough since joining R Menzies to warrant consideration, while Trillerin Minella is wildly inconsistent and ran deplorably on his first start for his new owner/trainer last time.

Tissue; 5/2 Blake Dean, 7/2 Pekanheim, 4 Formidableopponent, 5 Dun Faw Good, 12 Poetic Lord, 14 Trillerin Minella. 100% book

Conclusion: Dun Faw Good should have too much in hand for these granted decent ground and a positive ride, having made virtually all in three of his four wins between the flags. At 5/1 or bigger he rates a strong selection and I can see him going off shorter.

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