tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-72439851404055315052024-03-05T20:15:48.793+00:00Norm's NotebookA view from the paddockAdam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.comBlogger419125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-80387402179473473092024-02-16T10:27:00.020+00:002024-02-18T12:40:39.238+00:00Seven Scams<p><b>1. Government</b> – The State is not your friend. It is your enemy. The illusion of democracy was set up specifically to keep the ‘plebs’ in a perpetual state of fear, anxiety and servitude. ‘Government’ is a for-profit corporation put in place to benefit those in higher office, increasing incrementally as they rise up the food chain. They do this by ‘selling out’ any principles they may have had and pretend they still have (unlikely – most are ‘selected’ at an early stage because they have been ‘compromised’ in some way, and/or display sociopathic tendencies), to maintain the illusion they are in some way ‘representing’ said plebs. Which is of course ridiculous.</p><p><b>2 Taxation</b> – ‘No taxation without representation’ they cried! Okay, so we’ll agree to be taxed but only if our concerns are represented in Parliament by the individual we vote for. OKaaaay. How is this working out for you? Would you say your local MP truly represents your concerns about local issues or indeed about national and geopolitical situations? If the answer in ‘no’ then we have a problem. Moreover, the ‘dollar’ you earn is often taxed not once, not twice, even three or four times! Let us not forget that ‘direct taxation’ or ‘income tax’ as it’s better known, is a relatively modern phenomenon. In fact, it was outlawed in the American constitution and only made legal with the 16th amendment in 1913, and was originally designed to hit the top 1% of earners. We accept it as something set in stone, and we shouldn’t. Under Normanism (lolz), the vast majority of workers would keep all of their hard earned. Imagine what a boost to the nation that would be.</p><p><b>3 The Financial System</b> – Ask anyone you know ‘how does the financial system work’? They won’t know, because they – and you – aren’t supposed to know. Why? Because the system was set up by a cabal or cartel of private bankers who loan money into existence, which is bought mostly by Governments (bonds) who then steal money from the lower classes via taxation to pay the interest on said loans. This collusion between the bankers and The Govermint <sic> continues until the State becomes so indebted, the money becomes so obviously worthless that the entire system collapses, everyone is wiped out, and the whole thing starts again. They don’t teach this in school folks – because as soon as you’re old enough to get a credit card, you’re fucked. Which was the plan all along.</p><p><b>4 ‘Covid’</b> – The greatest hoax ever perpetrated on an unsuspecting global population. Using the tried and tested method of control, Governments weaponised fear by convincing people to be scared of something they cannot see. Using the incredible power of television programming, via remote control (do ya see it yet) the entire scam was based around two falsehoods – a new PCR Test so good that it tells you whether or not you have a specific respiratory infection (it doesn’t), and the hilarious notion of ‘asymptomatic transmission’. Just try going to the doctor claiming to suspect you have a certain condition, confirming; ‘oh no, I don’t have any symptoms’. They actually made people believe that having no symptoms, was a symptom. Literally everything else, from 'face nappies' to 'bubbles' to 'vaccines', was pure distraction, theatre and ritual humiliation. You’ve got to hand it to them, when it comes to propaganda, they have no peers.</p><p><b>5 Man-man climate change</b> – This one takes a bit more thought, but not much. The climate has always changed. The end. Okay, this time it’s different, I get it. Why? Because since the industrial revolution from around 1850 onwards, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased (it is now 0.04% of the atmosphere, or 400 parts per million), so it must be OUR FAULT. Wait...don’t records go back any further than 1850? Yes, they do, as a matter of fact. And what the records show, is that the planet has had many periods of cooling and warming, but that those periods were not preceded by a rise or fall in carbon dioxide, because it’s not scientifically possible. Co2 in the atmosphere CAN ONLY rise when there is an increase in temperature first. Besides, anyone claiming that a trace gas that makes up 0.04% of the atmosphere is the control knob on the earth's temperature is clearly trying to pull a fast one. So, it’s not your fault. In fact a warmer climate means more carbon dioxide, and a greener planet. Which is brilliant news for everyone. Only when the billionaires start selling their beach front mansions will it be time to worry.</p><p><b>6 The Cancer Industry</b> – We are all touched by cancer, so it’s a very emotive subject. Which, like all health matters, is GREAT NEWS for the pharmaceutical industry – and cancer is big business. That the Big C isn’t preventable or curable is of course rubbish – we have all that we need in nature to live without cancer. But the main cause of cancer – sugar – is in pretty much EVERYTHING that most of us eat. Cut out sugar and you are far less likely get a cancerous tumour, which feeds on sugar. Why is sugar in everything? Because they know it is the most addictive substance on earth. So they create the problem, knowing the reaction, and then supply the solution, which makes them enormously wealthy. Did you know that cancer can never be cured? It was written into British law in 1939 – to promote the idea that you have a cure for cancer is punishable with a prison sentence. The cancer industry will NEVER find a cure for cancer, because it's worth trillions of dollars (new mRNA cancer vaccine anyone?) and there are dozens of ways to prevent/cure the disease via ingredients found only in nature – but they don’t teach that in school, either.</p><p><b>7 Electricity</b> – When the company you pay for your electricity refers to itself as your ‘supplier’, they are lying. It’s a massive scam. The supplier of your electricity is the National Grid (which, hilariously enough, burns a lot of coal and imported wood) – the company you pay is nothing more than an agent, or middle man. If you stopped paying for your electricity, you would still get electricity. There’s not a man stood in a big room flicking switches on and off if you don't pay. You would then have a long and humorous relationship with said ‘agent’ where they will threaten you with untold horrors until they give up and sell your ‘debt’ to a bailiff, who you then thank for paying said debt on your behalf. The reality is that there was once a genius called Tesla. Nikola Tesla died penniless despite holding thousands of patents proving that electricity is all around us and can be harnessed in many different ways. Free electricity for the masses was of course anathema to THE POWERS THAT BE, who censored, deplatformed and trolled Tesla so that they could promote their man Thomas Edison, and make money out of the plebs for evermore. Thinking about it, it’s the greatest scam ever contrived. </p><p><i><b>Coming soon - seven more scams!</b></i></p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-88941796118089292722023-09-04T12:23:00.007+01:002024-02-19T10:02:43.202+00:00They do not need a phone<p>We at Norman Towers enjoyed our biggest win of 2023 SO FAR...we received an email from our daughter's school telling us that mobile phones (or cell phones for my American readers) would not be allowed on school premises from the start of term (today).</p><p>Talk about a RESULT. </p><p>My only child is entering year 8 (not sure?) and has, certainly for the the last 12 months, along with her best friend, been the only child in her year without such a device (apparently).</p><p>As time passed other parents said they wouldn't be giving their kids phones until they were in big school (which for us is 13) and yet by the ages of 7/8 one by one children kept appearing with one, under the auspices of 'fitting in' (when did we last here that kind of talk, hmmm).</p><p>In the era of fairness and inclusivity (LOL) it seemed like the wishes of the small minority (in this case me/my wife and one other set of parents) were being ignored because 'well we don't want them to feel isolated and I like to know where they are' type thinking. </p><p>Well, we at chez Norm tend to call bollocks where we see bollocks. And this was complete and utter Betty Swollocks in all her finery.</p><p>We couldn't understand how it was okay for kids as young as nine or 10 to spend break and lunchtimes, plus lengthy coach trips to away sports fixtures, glued to their phones making fucking TikTok videos. Are you kidding me?</p><p>I don't think I'm alone as a middle aged man feeling a guttural sense of dispondency whenever I see kids at a bus stop, on a bus or just generally hanging out in groups, not seemingly aware of the world and the people around them, but transfixed by the latest YouTube short.</p><p>Did I say dispondent? I meant depressing. It's fucking depressing.</p><p>My daughter and her friend can only chat for so long on a coach journey of an hour or more, before conversation runs dry and they get dragged in to perform some daft shite for TikTok. I tell her it's okay to just look out the window and be alone with her thoughts.</p><p>Imagine that for one second...to be alone with one's thoughts. What an old fashioned concept!</p><p>She's a great kid, she doesn't suffer many fools and is not bothered about the TikTok shite, but these things are designed to get you on the hook and any more passive viewing would most likely have reeled her in.</p><p>She has the use of a tablet at home and her mum's phone when it's free and we see how addictive these things are through her - and we know we're all guilty of it.</p><p>But it behoves us to protect these precious minds from who knows what. It is not fucking okay to just go along with the next thing because 'it's inevitable anyway'. No it's bloody well not, if you've got the minerals to stand your ground on a point of principle. And thankfully the school's Head agrees.</p><p>Parenting is knew to every parent - especially when you only have one - each stage presents challenges and none of us gets everything right. I'd hardly put myself forward as a model parent, although I give it everything I have.</p><p>But I firmly believe we are here to protect, first and foremost. And to give them wings so that they may fly when the time comes.</p><p>Children do not need phones during school time. They should be interacting, developing physical relationships and learning all the skills required to function in an adult world that is hurtling towards them.</p><p>We simply do not know what effect the constant use of these Goddamn machines are having on their little brains, their fragile emotions and their cognitive learning. </p><p>We all know the benefits of interconnectivity and knowledge at the touch of a button. But if I can encourage one parent or one more kid to leave the phone at home, I've done something worthwhile.</p><p><b><i>Coming soon....how and why the response to a manufactured public health emergency was a test of compliance, how and why they will try it again under some other guise, and how and why the State and its controllers are not incompetent, but pure evil.</i></b> </p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-26025921344128444902022-11-14T14:02:00.002+00:002022-11-14T14:02:30.248+00:00Trainer talk<p>It may just be 'one of those things' but Richard Newland is still not firing on many cylinders and I continue to oppose the vast majority of his runners.</p><p>Since the end of July he has had five winners from 99 runners, all those successes coming in October when it looked like his horses might have turned some sort of corner.</p><p>I saw a couple of his run at Market Rasen on Thursday and both ran shockers - neither Summer Moon nor Seinesational looked as if they were ready to win, carrying condition and poor in their coats - yet were taking a fair chunk out of the market.</p><p>There have been one or two running okay but since the spring they've been almost non existent and this from a yard that very rarely drew a blank for long. Perhaps he just happens to have a poor bunch in at the moment and I can't think off the top of my head of a single good horse under his care, yet he could always be relied upon to do well with whatever went through his hands.</p><p>I'm sure things will turn around at some point - he'll probably end up with a yard full of well handicapped horses - but for now it's still a case of treading very carefully especially as the racing gets more competitive.</p><p>Becky Menzies is everyone's favourite trainer these days, well - in the north at least - and justifiably so as her numbers get better by the year. I'd say she tends to handle the bulk of her National Hunt horses in an 'old fashioned' way, leaving something to work on for later in the season, and it's been noticeable how her horses are behind a lot of the other yards at the moment. It's a long season and we need more rain - I doubt if she's been able to get them on the grass much.</p><p>I've always viewed her as the type to enjoy most success in the deep winter months and she's getting some nicer types sent to her now. Success breeds success and Bex is well on the way to passing last season's best of 31 winners.</p><p>My weekly round-up from the paddock will soon be posted <a href="https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/" target="_blank">here</a> - do sign up to get all the best info and daily tips!</p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-45701797892326003912022-11-06T15:04:00.004+00:002022-11-06T15:06:11.659+00:00Hexham/Aintree<p>The following is an excerpt of the weekly round-up that can be found by joining Josh's website <a href="https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/freereports/" target="_blank">here</a> - I've also made my individual paddock notes available to anyone who feels they might benefit their betting, for a small monthly payment. For the more serious punter I send a minute-long audio message direct from the paddock within minutes of the off. Please DM me @ artistic_prince on Twitter for more information.</p><p><b>Hexham </b></p><p>Captain Quint is every inch a chaser and got back on track with a fairly straight forward success in an interesting novices handicap. I think he’s quite a bit better than what he was able to show here but it was a good place to start off, as they say. </p><p>If North Parade ever gets his act together he’ll prove himself way ahead of this mark, but his race was blighted by errors. A strapping chaser, he was still carrying plenty of condition but I’m not sure if I’d be with him next time. Another spin round might get him to where he needs to be and a big track like Newcastle should eventually suit.</p><p>Becky Menzies ran a couple, Ritson again finding nothing off the bridle despite looking the more forward of them. Twoshotsoftequila isn’t entirely straight forward but came home strongly having been given a quiet run round. He has just about enough size for this game and will be better over further and on a different track.</p><p>I nearly backed my first Sue Smith horse of the season in Right Said Ted at big odds in a desperate handicap hurdle over 2m, and he stayed on for what would have been some nice each-way returns. A tall shell of a horse, he looked fitter than some stablemates probably owing more to a lack of meat on the bones than anything else, but he’s literally on a basement mark and should keep improving as long as they keep him well fed.</p><p><b>Aintree</b></p><p class="MsoNormal">Doctor Ken didn’t kick on over hurdles last season but if ever there was a horse that was going to excel over fences it’s him and just like when I saw him here 12 months ago he blew me away with his size and scope. Clearly still quite immature, I thought Aidan Coleman gave him a fine ride and the horse didn’t let him down at the obstacles, using his range when necessary. </p><p class="MsoNormal">That was no more evident than at the last when he engulfed the well backed Ree Okka before powering to the line. I loved the way he responded to pressure, as he finished weakly at times last season, and this tells me he’s starting to come to himself. I’ll back him again next time as he must be a 140+ horse.</p><p class="MsoNormal">Ree Okka shaped much more like a three miler last season and I suspect he’ll go back up in trip next time, doing little wrong here although he wouldn’t have the scope of many, and isn’t an out-and-out chaser on looks despite what you might read elsewhere. He didn’t look short of fitness, either, so we can say that the best horse came out on top on the day.</p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-1524599307915047792022-11-02T07:07:00.005+00:002022-11-02T13:54:44.169+00:00Trainer watch<p><b><i>As of November 1 I'm providing regular updates exclusively for Josh Wright <a href="https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/" target="_blank">here</a> and I'll also be adding to his tipping service through to the end of the National Hunt season. With all the extras Josh adds to his daily blog, it should provide tons of value for regular punters.</i></b></p><p>Ben Pauling had a couple of fancied runners at Wetherby on Saturday, headed by the highly touted Joe Dadancer in the opening novices hurdle. </p><p>We got a good look at him in the pre-parade and paddock and he immediately struck me as a bit of a bruiser, a strong, robust animal and a bit ignorant looking. By the time they'd departed I'd half convinced myself that he was fit enough for the job but he was carrying enough condition around the middle to make me look elsewhere.</p><p>Later on, Bangers And Mash also came in for good support and he certainly looks the type to do well over fences this year. However, he too was carrying plenty of timber and on this occasion I was pretty sure he wasn't going to see his race out, and so it proved. </p><p>I liked the way he moved through the race though and lack of fitness only began to tell from the second last. He's one to bear in mind next time I think.</p><p>I've always been a fan of the trainer (despite his penchant for silly dancing) but his progression through the ranks has levelled off in the last few years. However, after building a new yard on a golf course (!) he's had a very strong summer with more than a 30% strike rate, which was always going to revert to the mean at some stage.</p><p>Unsurprisingly, the more competitive month of October saw him send out only four winners and on this evidence it's possible that his winter team have been and may continue to need their first outing back. Harper's Brook would have been a convincing winner of that strong Carlisle novice chase on Sunday but for the very promising winner though. Hopefully I'll see more of Ben's horses in the coming weeks and keep you updated.</p><p>Alex Hales has always intrigued me as a guy who should get more winners than he does. And then between 19-21 he seemed to have a bit of breakthrough period before going quiet again, probably because those that had been winning were less well handicapped. He's been a little quiet again of late and he is the type of trainer to bring them along steadily at this time of year. He'll be back on my radar during the darkest months.</p><p>Another handler I really like is Lucy Wadham. I hadn't realised that she has hardly any summer jumpers and that makes me like her even more. I'm going label her 'Venetia-lite', as most of her runners/winners come between November and April. They often come in clusters and it has to be said she's had a very quiet year since bagging 'half a stretch' in January - just a solitary winner in the interim.</p><p>However, she wasn't far off a double at Wetherby with Hurricane Bay just losing out in a battle of the rags, and then stable star Martello Sky running her eyeballs out as per usual in the Listed mares hurdle.</p><p>It's actually quite hard to put a level on that novice hurdle in which Joe Dadancer flopped, I'm guessing Hurricane Bay is a 115-type at this stage although there's improvement to come in fitness and professionalism - watching the race back it was quite a performance.</p><p>Anyway, just keep an eye on the Wadham kennel for now and await further signs of rejuvenation.</p><p><br /></p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-7353410829201302842022-10-30T09:55:00.009+00:002022-10-30T10:00:58.118+00:00Wetherby October 29<div>They weren’t kicking much up on day one of the Charlie Hall meeting and they went pretty steady in most of the races, so a lot of it may be untrustworthy form as we head into the most competitive period of the season.</div><div><br /></div><div>I mentioned Pileup after his opening run at Hexham and he showed a bit more here having tightened up a fair amount in three weeks, this was a very different affair to that previous race. However, while the steady gallop allowed him to hold a position it wouldn’t have suited him entirely, as he was outpaced when the race began in earnest before staying on again at the death.</div><div><br /></div><div>This sort of trip will suit for now and he’ll surely handle softer, so he’s one to stay with although please keep in mind this is modest stuff and he’s no world beater. Piaff Bubbles was again warm in the market but once more he failed to impress beforehand, he’s just leggy and unfurnished and needs more time. At some point, probably when his legion of fans have moved on, he’ll come into his own.</div><div><br /></div><div>I was most impressed with the stature of Loughderg Rocco in the three runner-up novice chase and a glance my notes on him from some time ago tell me that he’s ‘the type to come alive over fences’. He trounced Tim Pat in an Irish Point and that one is now rated 127, so I'm pretty certain this effort was no fluke - what’s more he’ll come on plenty for it. It’ll be really interesting how high they aim with him as while he’ll be a gimme wherever he goes next, and I’d venture to suggest he’s graded class when the emphasis is on stamina.</div><div><br /></div><div>One of the highlights of the autumn has been the terrific form of the Nicky Richards stable following a quiet enough couple of years by his standards. Parisencore was well backed despite looking a shade burly and looks the type to keep one step ahead of the assessor for now. </div><div><br /></div><div>Chief market rival Name In Lights is wasting time until sent over fences and it’s to be hoped that is now the route they will take with him. He was keen enough here and he takes too much time over the timbers -he has the make and shape of a horse much better than his current mark. Osprey Call isn’t a chaser on looks and he will come on for what looked like a sighter. He’s not been campaigned very well to date – hopefully his decent handler can put that right this winter.</div><div><br /></div><div>There seems to be a fixation with Coconut Splash, who is proving one of the most expensive horses to follow in this sphere. Again he was made favourite to land a decent prize but simply does not pick up off the bridle and again had to settle for minors. There didn’t appear to be any fitness issue here and he’s not one to be making excuses for. </div><div><br /></div><div>It was great to see the burgeoning Mark Walford yard land a big pot with the hugely progressive Into Overdive, who has the size and scope to keep improving this winter. Walford’s horses have been shaping nicely despite looking burly in recent weeks but this one looked tuned to the minute for his biggest assignment yet and he passed with flying colours despite giving backers a huge scare at the last.</div><div><br /></div><div>He won this with any amount in hand and while most of the opposition looked handicapped to the hilt it’s hard not to think he’ll be competitive in better races, especially over 3m.</div><div><br /></div><div>The novices hurdle may not amount to a great deal form-wise as they looked green enough behind the front pair, Ukantango doing enough to defy a penalty with an assist from Royal Mogul, who looks a shirker. Maybe that’s a bit harsh, but I felt he put the brakes on after the final flight although he may have just got tired. Don Hollow, who wore him down here in a bumper, has plenty of ability but it might take another run or two to get him where he should be, looking very novicey throughout.</div>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-27338799554925095422022-10-29T06:34:00.001+01:002022-10-29T06:34:17.195+01:00Aintree October 23<div>Plenty of rain around overnight and in the morning but it looks as though they kept the ground as good to soft, good in places. As is often the case here it took some getting and although there were plenty of close finishes they were well strung out in behind. Fitness was the order of the day and those looking in need of a run or two were largely found wanting.</div><div><br /></div><div>My first thought after the first was that Hexham scorer Tiger Jet should be given another chance after being sent on an awful long way out, in contrast to a fortnight ago when H Brooke seemed at pains to hang on to him as long as possible. This steady gallop did the horse few favours but it still seemed an impertinent move and one that failed spectacularly. It was an odd race with countless beaten along way out.</div><div><br /></div><div>I don’t really do veterans races but one to take from today’s may be Le Patriote, who looked to be carrying plenty of timber on his return from an enforced absence. He popped away and travelled nicely before fading from the second last – he was no certainty to stay and he failed to get home, so bear him in mind over shorter next time.</div><div><br /></div><div>The big race saw some really nice horses come together – paddock honours going to Do Your Job with eventual winner Riders Onthe Storm not far behind. The latter looked on good terms with himself and great in his coat – odds of 16/1 were an insult to his ability and connections had been vocal enough about his chances provided the rain got into the ground.</div><div><br /></div><div>Soldier Of Destiny was popular but looked a bit out of place in this grade, and he’ll need his sights lowering. I don’t think it suited this enthusiastic mover being held onto and more forceful tactics should see him return to form. Stablemate Ga Law did not look at all wound up for this – he’s not filled out greatly and like his sibling may always be a little fragile... if they get him to the Paddy Power at Cheltenham in three weeks’ he could go well.</div><div><br /></div><div>The most interesting formline of the day may come from the handicap hurdle won by Peking Rose with the right horses pulling clear. The winner and second, McCain’s A Different Kind, looked ready to roll while appealing as types to continue to pay their way. The nicest of the bunch came home next, Petit Tonnerre and Onemorefortheroad quite imposing chase types – particularly the former. He looked quite burly and defied market weakness to prove himself an interesting project for connections. Many will say the latter didn’t stay but he got there soon enough and he’s worth another crack at the trip as he’ll surely come on for the run. Bridge North is another to bear in mind – he’ll rate higher than this and he’d be interesting if sent over fences next.</div><div><br /></div><div>The maiden hurdle is worth mentioning for the fact that the market principals all looked big chasing types in need of the run, not least the favourite Ginny’s Destiny who looked novicey at times in what turned into a messy race. Eventual winner Mahons Glory was the fittest in the line-up and I’d expect a very different result if this was run in a few months’ time. In that sense you’d have to give credit to Heezer Geezer who went down fighting and will benefit enormously from it.</div><div><br /></div><div>Kinondo Kweto continues to defy the handicapper in a ‘low sun’ effected novices handicap, the interesting one being Your Own Story who looks an instinctive jumper and one to bear in mind next season when he gains strength and fills out. I’d expect him to do well this term, but will really benefit from time and I’m sure he’ll be sensibly handled.</div><div><br /></div><div>The mares bumper wasn’t a great renewal – Bombay Sapphire looking fantastic in her coat as you’d expect emanating from Seven Barrows, I thought she was fit enough but she ran as though it was badly needed and the market drift told all. Money came for Harry Fry’s Credrojava – a trainer who targets this race – and she looked well forward for her stable debut and got the job done. It was a remarkable run though from runner-up Ruby Island who is most definitely the one to take from the race, as with many of her yard’s horses at present she looked in need of the run and not great in her coat, which has yet to be clipped out. To run so well under a penalty bodes well for her career over jumps, which she has the size for.</div>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-60671889993927304702022-10-09T15:47:00.009+01:002022-10-09T16:04:38.509+01:00Hexham October 8<p><b>Synopsis</b></p><p><b>A frustrating day on many fronts primarily IN MY OPINION because the jockeys saw 'soft' in the going description and decided to hack round in most of the races, which turned into 'sprints' (relatively speaking, obvs) and thus making for dubious results.</b></p><p>The notable exception was Tristan Durrell who, with owners present, had clearly been instructed to make sure his partner She's A Saint look the business, setting solid fractions from the start and seemingly maintaining them to the line, and beyond.</p><p>The compact five-year-old hadn't cost a great deal following her Irish Point success but may be quite a capable sort. Good luck putting a mark on this - my guess would be 125 and that's probably a bit high.</p><p>Pileup plugged on for third, a nice type for low grade handicaps and connections will be delighted with this as he can't be rated much more than 100 and he's a better horse than that having not looked fit here.</p><p>Graystown knows this place better anyone and was bidding for a hat-trick of wins in this particular race so it was surprising that regular partner S Coltherd wasn't more aggressive on a horse that stays much further. They pottered round and the well-backed Rocco Storm ponced to victory. An inauspicious start.</p><p>Lucinda Russell always starts a few off at this meeting and you can be certain they were 95 percent ready to roll. They were good enough if forward enough and that proved the case for Green Vault, who isn't the biggest and was far from foot perfect.</p><p>He'll pay his way but may reach his ceiling quite quickly over the larger obstacles. It proved a well judged ride from D Fox although Coltherd set a decent enough pace here on the keen going Velasco who isn't the most straightforward.</p><p>Robin Des Fox is a big unit and wants a proper track with decent fences but I have my reservations about him for all that he needed the run quite badly.</p><p>Charlie Longsdon sent up a couple of live ones but they ran stinkers despite being strong in the market. Both Lyrical Genius and Gaelic Park were 100 percent fit but couldn't get out their own way. You could make excuses for the former who was on the softest ground he'd faced, may not have taken to the track or relished the slow gallop, but with tongue-tie and cheekpieces already enlisted I'd be giving him a wide berth for the foreseeable.</p><p>Gaelic Park was easy to fancy on paper, registering decent figures in his Point and bumpers, yet physically he made no appeal whatsoever, being close coupled and chunky in the middle, narrow at either end. I can't see any reason to follow him either after seeing that.</p><p>Similar comments apply to Irish raider Finnthemagician, who came in very late and looked quirky to say the least - you can see why the BFG has already called for some headgear. </p><p>Paddy The Horse typically ran to form and proved just good enough to fend off Skelton's Snipe, who probably surprised a few people with this promising effort despite looking rather light framed. </p><p>Trainer watch</p><p>George Bewley can have long spells in the wilderness but when they're right they're worth following and Breaking The Ice followed up the success of Paddy The Horse to make it four wins in 10 days. There may be a couple more to come in the weeks ahead and both winners looked straight enough on their return, which is not always the case with this yard.</p><p>Sam England is a trainer of note in these parts but the winter horses tend to need a run or three at this time of year and punters were way off beam regarding Croagh Patrick, who will be back paying his way once he's worked off the summer excess.</p><p>Sam had a runner in the opener too, a Skelton cast-off starting out on a basement mark. He's every inch a staying chaser and while probably not straight forward, I'd bet short odds that he'll be operating from a higher mark later this season.</p><p>There was only one horse anywhere near full fitness in the closing bumper and thus Merrjig was a good bet for maverick Newmarket handler John Berry. Why on earth W Kennedy didn't take the race by the fluff of the scroat at some stage will undoubtedly remain one of life's great mysteries. I'd prefer to die knowing, William.</p><p>I'll tell anyone unfortunate enough to be in earshot that unfit horses don't win races. Well, I reckon maybe it happens one in every 500 and it happened today. Well done if you backed the 10/1 shot Rolling River. </p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-6354963924350827282022-10-06T08:31:00.001+01:002022-10-06T08:31:43.560+01:00Sedgefield October 5<p>I wouldn't go as far as to say it was 'good to be back' at the Co Durham venue as it's a notorious graveyard for this particular railway shunter.</p><p>To be asked at the gate if I was a 'concession' punter - implying I look 66 despite not yet turning 50 - hardly improved the mood. 'It's hard to tell how old people are these days', apparently.</p><p>There were concessions all round in the first as Jimmy Moffatt's Yukon caused a turn-up, not that the owners standing right behind me minded too much. I've booked in to see the hearing consultant tomorrow.</p><p>Summer Moon ran poorly on his debut for Dr Newland and while I'm aware he had a winner the other day it certainly didn't cross my mind to take on the Ellison jolly with his ex-Flat stayer. Enthused was very fit but he lacks scope to be much good at this game.</p><p>Hajey ran a blinder despite looking burly, although the Waggott likes to keep plenty of condition on them. Heritier De Sivola might be one to keep an eye on at a lower level, needing this outing.</p><p>Atomic Angel made her debut over fences in the staying chase but she lacks the size and while jumping nimbly in the main I'd expect her to come up short in this discipline.</p><p>Ruth Jefferson went to £110k to secure Point winner Thermusa and this good walker probably has a fair future after making a winning debut despite looking green and novicey. She'll come on for the run fitness-wise but it's far too early to say how good she might be.</p><p>There was plenty of cash flying around for Reve De Niamh in this, despite her only costing £1200 quid. It was a 'no contest', but she too looked novicey and the cash might be recouped at some later date.</p><p>The mare's trainer Ian Jardine didn't go home empty hearted though, his well backed Half Shot landing the finale with plenty to spare. </p><p>An okay looker, he wore a red hood to the start as he's had a history of being difficult and he could be the sort to win again if they can channel the ability.</p><p>Hidden Commander looked really well and wasn't notably unfit but probably wouldn't have won even without a mistake two out, while Creative Control went into some notebooks but not this one.</p><p>I got him wrong last year when he sweated profusely prior to winning at Doncaster, and he looks a fairly honest sort. The fact Hughes took him wide throughout (as he had in an earlier chase) suggested today wasn't the day and he'll probably pick up a race at somewhere like Musselburgh.</p><p>He's only medium sized and compact though, so to my mind he's not one to get too excited about over fences and I'd be a little surprised if he ever rated much higher than 120. He'll be a better hurdler.</p><p>Trainer notes</p><p>Sam Allwood is one of my favourite young trainers, probably because I was lucky enough to latch on to his multiple winners Sheneededtherun and Out On The Tear earlier than most. </p><p>He seems to have a knack of keeping them sweet for long periods and he's now got Bempton Cliffs to win three of his last four races over fences.</p><p>I don't like backing Flat breds in this sphere but this one seems to love the game, he's not the most robust but has size and scope. He's uses that Flat speed to get on the lead early and he showed plenty of stamina and determination to beat the in-form Tico Times.</p><p>He's probably a bit of a one-trick pony as he clearly loves to have it his own way in front, but Allwood can be relied upon to keep him fresh and there should be more to come. </p><p><br /></p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-16181276948388980242022-09-28T09:03:00.004+01:002022-09-28T11:02:33.587+01:00Southwell Sept 27<p>What did we learn from today - our first National Hunt meeting of the season.</p><p>Despite plenty of watering the ground was described as good to firm by the jockeys hence a clutch of non-runners.</p><p>Modest stuff overall, the clear highlight being the success of Kinondo Kweto in the staying chase, picking up a remarkable-in-the-circs £9k+ for this third W on the spin.</p><p>Jonny England noted this pot was worth a good deal more than the 'Bobby Renton' at Wetherby in the middle of next month - shame on the North Yorkshire venue!</p><p>Kinondo has barely left the snaff in three jaunts over the black ones. Noted as a fair prospect last winter, the six-year-old was only given a short break before getting a late summer campaign and has done the shrewd Guiseley husband & wife combo proud. The previous Uttoxeter win bagged £12k+ - top bananas.</p><p>The six-year-old will go up another 5lb for this but as we saw at Uttox he's still very green and doesn't do much in front. My heart bleeds for the h'capper <not>. He looks a proper winter chaser - yet to run on soft - and it's hard to put a ceiling on his ability. </p><p>Even accounting for the weaker summer form, I'd have him as a 130 type already. Who knows where they'll go next - there are few better than the Englands at placing horses to best effect. </p><p>Runner-up Farouk De Cheneau, like the winner a tad keen, is probably a strong stayer but lacks size and scope and was fiddly a few times here. I'd worry about him over bigger fences. His coat was gleaming - Hendo feeds his nags caviar and champagne.</p><p>The Oliver Greenall kennel is in good heart and was denied a double on the card when The Questioner was caught on the back foot in a steadily run finale.</p><p>A winner on soft ground, I've had him marked him down as a through stayer and he got stuck in a pocket at the wrong time before rattling home. This was knowhere near a stiff enough test and I'd be interested next time on a stiffer track like Carlisle (outside).</p><p>Trainer notes</p><p>WTAF has happened at the Newland barn? I've heard a couple of reasons why he's gone 69 days and nearly 50 runners without so much as a sniff. The only blank months he'd had since 2015 were Feb 16, Feb 19 and Feb 20. He's had fewer runners than normal during the summer which tells me there's a bug around. </p><p>FWIW the ones I saw today looked dull in their coat and they stood out in this regard with the vast majority of runners still holding onto their summer sheen. Avoid until further notice.</p><p>It's still early days for the jumpers. Scouse wordsmith P Ferguson was in attendance promoting his annual which means everyone's getting excited about the season ahead. My advice is to take a pull, tiptoe through October and the hopefully with a bit of rain we can then get reet stuck in!</p><p>PS; Oh, by the way. Note the name, if you haven't already, of Jake Thomas Coulson. Don't know anything about him but I suspect he knows how to train racehorses. </p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-52347666037291353852020-11-05T14:22:00.001+00:002020-11-05T14:22:10.414+00:00 Aintree October 25<p>These are my paddock notes from the meeting at Aintree last month, one of several I was able to attend in October.</p><p>If you would like to get access to all my notes, plus my new daily tipping service, please <a href="https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/joinmembersclub?affiliate=normsnotebook" target="_blank">visit Josh's website for a free trial</a>.</p><p>A typically informative novice hurdle opened the card and all eyes were on expensive purchase Killer Kane, trained by Colin Tizzard who has had a quiet month thus far.</p><p>The son of Oscar is, as expected, a good looking horse and a really sweet mover at the walk, but he looked in need of the run and so it was very encouraging to see him perform so well, jumping cleanly and only running out of steam halfway up the run-in.</p><p>It’s not an easy race to weigh up though, the experienced duo Torn And Frayed and Danny Kirwan are likely to have performed below their official marks, the latter looking harshly treated on 139 going into this.</p><p>A big sort that required two handlers, I thought Danny Kirwan looked pretty straight for this reappearance and he’s probably going to struggle to live up to hopes, backing out of things from the last. Surely he’s ready for a switch to fences, but based on this his rating is far too high.</p><p>Real Stone wasn’t expected to win this and the outsider is a tall, unfurnished individual who wouldn’t be a likely top-notcher on breeding. He did nothing wrong, but does hold down the level of the form at this stage.</p><p>Torn And Frayed is probably a three miler now but he looked pretty straight and he folded tamely, his trainer not banging in the winners as he can at this time of year.</p><p>Butte Montana was made favourite for a Cheltenham bumper 12 months ago but was a big flop here after a market drift, his jumping novicey throughout after looking to need the run beforehand.</p><p>For Nuts Well to give weight all round in the Old Roan is a fantastic feat for such a small yard, however this career-best at the 38th time of asking under rules does put the quality of the race under a spotlight.</p><p>With so many in with a chance three from home, it was clear they didn’t go much of a pace on ground that was generally considered to be more good to soft than soft, and that may not have suited several in behind.</p><p>Certainly not Oldgrangewood, who revels in coming late off a fast pace and he got there far too soon this time, while Clondaw Castle looked to have been delivered with a perfectly timed challenge only to find the winner too strong.</p><p>The winner’s superior fitness may have been the difference in the final analysis, and it is the runner-up who makes most appeal going forward, this being only his third outing at the trip.</p><p>A nice tall horse with scope who generally jumps and travels well, he should have all the big handicaps in his sights now and may yet develop into a Ryanair type.</p><p>Itchy Feet was all the rage on the back of some hot novice form but he’s light on experience and I was disappointed with his lack of physical scope beforehand. A stronger pace would have suited, and maybe a step up in trip will help with his jumping, as I sense he’ll always struggle when it matters most. Perhaps the race didn’t pan out for him and he’ll prove me wrong.</p><p>This was Annie Mc’s first go in a handicap over fences and she could be a touch high in the weights for all that she shaped with promise over a trip that now looks on the sharp side. She is a very accurate jumper and a quality mare that should have another productive season. </p><p>The staying handicap chase usually throws up a number of future winners and this year’s renewal is likely to be no different, although in truth there weren’t many beforehand that appealed from a betting viewpoint.</p><p>Eventual winner Acey Milan had had a disappointing second season over timber, looking pretty one-paced and using headgear, but after a second wind op this real chasing type came home strong enough to get back to winning ways.</p><p>They finished in a bit of a heap again, with Ofalltheginjoints threatening to go and win easily only to run out of puff between the final two fences. A big robust chaser, he was carrying more condition than most and I thought his effort was a fine one, jumping notably cleanly throughout.</p><p>Rapper is quite nice looking individual who looks capable of better, although he looked pretty straight beforehand and didn’t seem as well handicapped as some, he can improve in the jumping department and is expected to build on this opening effort.</p><p>Diomede Des Mottes was popular in the market and looked an absolute picture, but made numerous errors and never landed a blow. Perhaps something was amiss, but he has a chequered profile and is probably one to be wary of.</p><p>Jammy George looked as though he’d come on for the run, but he wasn’t as big as some of the others and his jumping remains a concern, plus he’s pretty one paced.</p><p>The 2m4f handicap hurdle was taking by Paisley Park a couple of years back but there was nothing of that calibre on show this time. However, the couple with least exposure came nicely to the fore and will remain of interest going forward.</p><p>Jacamar hasn’t had a great deal of fortune this season, shying away from the tapes and forfeiting ground on his latest start, but this big scopey individual looked on great terms with himself and it came as little surprise to see him in the mix after encountering solid support in the ‘ring’.</p><p>I thought he won with quite a bit in hand and getting the better of Strong Glance may be no mean feat in retrospect.</p><p>Another chasing type, Strong Glance hasn’t been straight forward from the very start of his career but has shown flashes of ability that suggest he’s going to be more of a 140+ type.</p><p>Travelling so well in behind runners, he could have done with a much truer gallop and although produced with a timely challenge he probably didn’t run his most efficient race.</p><p>If Olly Murphy can channel his ability I’m sure there’s a decent race in Strong Glance this season, maybe over fences which has been mooted, while he could probably deal with a drop in trip provided they go a good gallop.</p><p>Point Of Principle has twice run well from this sort of mark and is a pretty solid performer at this level, needing this badly if the paddock was anything to go by and is one to keep an eye on next time.</p><p>Those with previous form, either in bumpers or Points, didn’t look that strong ahead of the closing bumper and sure enough it was the unraced Elle Est Belle who came through to win as she pleased under a motionless H Skelton.</p><p>The Fame And Glory filly caught the eye with her size and frame, like the stable’s winner in the opener looking rather unfurnished and on the weak side physically.</p><p>Given the Listed prizes available to her sex it would be very surprising if she isn’t kept to bumpers this season, as she should make up into a lovely jumper in time.</p><p>Drumlee Getaway was very light framed and leggy, Feralkat by contrast big and slow. The bare form may not be anything special, but it was hard not to be impressed by the winner.</p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-26761917352963964472020-11-03T10:00:00.002+00:002020-11-03T10:01:21.443+00:00Tuesday November 3<p>It's Haldon Gold Cup day at Exeter, which looks to have missed much of the recent heavy rain as they are racing on ground that is officially good, good to soft in places.</p><p>Two races went under the microscope and selections have been sent out at 9am this morning, let's hope the ground is nearer good than soft come post time!</p><p>In the meantime, here's how you can access my tips this winter plus a whole bunch of other info...</p><p><b>This is your chance to join myself and Josh this winter over at Racing To Profit. </b></p><p>The perfect jumps package?</p><p>Josh's Members Club is the perfect place to be for jumps enthusiasts this winter. There's that mix of opinion/tips you can just follow, part 'magazine subscription', but also stats/trends/previews etc that with any luck help you solve the puzzle yourself. There's also the RTP community, and many a shrewd comment posted to ponder. </p><p>Don't forget you get access to...</p><p>Daily Tips/Insight from me, and plenty from Josh...</p><p>Big Race previews/thoughts/tips from Josh, usually looking at a couple of the big Saturday handicaps and the spring Festivals.</p><p>Trainer stats / systems / starting points</p><p>Weekly Big Race trends/ stats /trainer pointers for 2+ big handicaps a week, and all out for The Cheltenham Festival. Hopefully a decent resource for the puzzle solvers out there</p><p>Videos - big race previews, weekend reviews and stats research from myself, and much more, inc 'betting better' type content.</p><p>Podcasts/Webinars - Josh and I will look to add some content along these lines, maybe racing reviews, how the punting is going, life of a pro etc. There will also be his exclusive 'Notes From The North', but lockdown allowing. In the next few days you'll get access to further pointers from his track visits in October.</p><p>The RTP community - which is probably one of the best bits - enjoying racing and the journey together. A friendly place in which to have some racing company, even if just online.</p><p>You can trial all of this for a full 30 days for free, with a monthly subscription option, a 'season ticket' and a full 30 day refund period. </p><p><a href="https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/joinmembersclub?affiliate=normsnotebook" target="_blank">YOU CAN FIND OUT MORE, INCLUDING A VIDEO FROM JOSH, AND SIGN UP HERE</a></p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-18625415441870702142020-11-01T13:34:00.003+00:002020-11-01T13:36:30.278+00:00Sunday November 1<p>The start of a new month, although unfortunately it's still 2020. However we are grateful for small mercies and racing will continue to go ahead throughout the dark months ahead.</p><p>It is looking increasingly unlikely that I'll be able to physically go racing, however I still intend to continue with a twice-monthly newsletter in which I'll be revealing the horses I am tracking closely based on paddock notes from the past and their subsequent form. Use the paypal button on the right if you wish to subscribe.</p><p>October was an informative month in terms of how far in front or behind trainers' horses are than is normal at this time of year. I will be sending out a newsletter covering the entire month of October in the next few days once I've added some thoughts from the two-day meeting at Wetherby.</p><p>As previously mentioned, the link-up with Josh starts today with my first piece of betting advice which runs at Huntingdon later today. If you want to join up for a free trial <a href="https://racingtoprofit.co.uk/joinmembersclub?affiliate=normsnotebook" target="_blank">here is the link</a>.</p><p>With the prospect of less travel, I might have time to post more previews on these pages and maybe some other observations.</p><p>Bye for now.</p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-12399911743136210042020-10-29T11:48:00.004+00:002020-10-29T15:18:35.787+00:00Thursday October 29<p>Further to my previous post regarding future plans, I can now reveal that I have teamed up with Josh Wright who you may know runs a successful website called Racing To Profit.</p><p>From Sunday, November 1 I will be posting daily tips from 9am which will sit alongside Josh's vast array of opinions and data research regarding that particular day's racing and also future action. A preview of what Josh will be up to in his member's section from Sunday is <a href="http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/joinmembersclub" target="_blank">here</a>. </p><p>The sign-up fee will be £149.99 which sees you through to the end of the National Hunt season in April, with a free 30-day trial and money-back offer. </p><p>In with that package you will also get my bi-monthly newsletter which you will be more familiar with, where I will be running through my paddock notes and opinions in a more forthright manner than I have been doing at Norm's Notebook for the past six years.</p><p>Obviously these are strange times and it will remain uncertain how many meetings I'm able to attend, however I've managed to get to seven tracks this month and hopefully it will be a similar story over the winter.</p><p>I don't know of any other professional able to gain access to the course at this current time, therefore I believe the information I am gathering is truly unique and I want to share that with you.</p><p>If you are not interested in joining the members club over at Racing To Profit, you may access my newsletters by clicking on the Paypal button I've added to the blog. I will send the newsletters to the email attached to your Paypal account.</p><p>If you pay by November 16 for the two letters next month, I will send you my notes from the whole of October taking in meetings at Hexham, Wetherby, Carlisle, Market Rasen and Aintree.</p><p>If you're interested, the sooner you pay for November, the sooner I can mail you my notes from October.</p><p>I will be adding a link to Josh's unique membership web page when he opens the doors at 9am on Sunday. </p><p>On to today's racing at Stratford where I had a good look at the 2.06 (really???) which is a handicap chase and I came to the conclusion that the winner would likely come from the front two in the market.</p><p>They have been backed almost to the exclusion of everything else, which has come as no surprise, however there doesn't seem much value left at present as I was trying to back them both at around 9/2 which is 7/4 coupled, and we are now looking at 3/1 and 7/2.</p><p>Looking at their overall profiles, of the pair I do prefer Templehills for win purposes, although the two furlong drop in trip and potential battle for the lead tempers enthusiasm a little.</p><p>But the form of his win here over 2m5f last time looks okay with he and another well-handicapped horse pulling clear of the rest, he remains on a good mark and is clearly revived by the return to Naunton. Softer ground should not be an issue.</p><p>I really like another Twiston-Davies trained chaser later on the card, Summit Like Herbie. He's a quirky young horse who seems to jump well in the main despite having his own way of doing things, he does go left at his fences but has loads of stamina.</p><p>The form of his fine return to action has been boosted with the second and fourth dominating a race at Chepstow on Tuesday, and I fully expect Summit Like Herbie to have a bit too much class for these rivals before going on to better things.</p><p>In the 3.06 (really!!) filthy each-way backers may put their accounts on the line if backing the JJ O'Neill-trained When You're Ready to beat buzz-horse Champagnesuperover.</p><p>However, if you don't fancy taking on the jolly it might just be worth having a closer look at this son of Malinas, who caught my eye at Southwell last year and then shaped nicely on his hurdles debut.</p><p>Today may not be the day as he looks like a 2m4f+ chaser in the making, but if fully wound up he might just ruffle a few feathers.</p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-65932694571797167092020-10-09T11:35:00.001+01:002020-10-09T11:36:40.838+01:00Sedgefield October 7 <p><b>Whilst I will continue to update the public blog from time to time, with race previews and eye-catchers, the meeting-by-meeting analysis will now take the form of a bi-monthly newsletter at the cost of £15/month via the Paypal button.</b></p><p><b>I aim to make these updates more punchy, direct and informative than ever and will focus on the meetings I'm able to attend, as well as some I cannot. This service will start from November.</b></p><p><b>There will be more on this plus information regarding a new tipping service in the coming days. For now here is a taste of what is to come this winter... </b></p><p><b>McGarry</b>, winner of a weak Point just 12 months ago, revealed the nature of his true ability with a close-up fifth of seven at Haydock on his final start for Henry Oliver in December, which earned him an opening mark of 107 despite not being asked too many questions.</p><p>I’ve noted him several times in six runs for Phil Kirby, every inch a chaser being a strong, lengthy individual, and despite this being his third outing since the resumption he still looked on the burly side.</p><p>It has to be said he has shown very little since Haydock, however that will not stop connections from having a good go when the time is right. Just modestly bred, the son of Mahler may only be a 105-type horse at best, yet he is already down to 94 and about to drop a good bit further. </p><p>They may look for a weak race over hurdles for him, however it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the money was down first time over fences when they will have a readymade excuse for the sudden burst of improvement. Kirby has fine record with chasers especially at the likes of Catterick and Wetherby. </p><p>In the opening contest, a horse that used to be owned by the Vacuum Pouch Company and was indeed the subject of strong support by connections last season returned to action by the name of <b>Kangaroo Valley</b>.</p><p>A son of Australia, he cost a whopping $200k as a yearling but I wasn’t taken by his backward appearance that day at Catterick, when he was off the bridle with a circuit to go before plugging on to be fourth in a modest juvenile hurdle.</p><p>On his first start since last winter, the four-year-old looked to be carrying condition but should do better given time to strengthen up, showing little in what turned out to be a rather weak event even by the track’s standards.</p><p>Interestingly, the horse found a jolt of improvement with the addition of cheekpieces when trained at Ballydoyle, earning a mark of 90, so we can look forward to a similar scenario for new connections possibly when stepped up to 2m4f.</p><p>The trainer will be keen to get his mark down from the current 110 into the 90s, which will take another couple of runs.</p><p>In the same race, the Sue Smith-trained <b>Small Present </b>is one to keep on the right side after finishing full of running in second place, repeatedly messed about in the final mile thanks to some novicey leaps and a basic lack of tactical speed over a tight 2m.</p><p>Still not looking fully fit despite having shown plenty behind a future winner at Hexham the previous month, the son Presenting is a typical ‘work in progress’ from the yard although he’d need to grow further before a career over fences is considered.</p><p>There is no doubt that both his bumper and hurdles outings thus far suggest a decent horse in the making, however I would still expect him to make his mark in the shorter term providing he is stepped up to 2m4f.</p><p>He may struggle in deep winter ground given that he is still immature but he is clearly some way ahead of the rest of the stable’s winter team, suggesting they are hoping to make the most of the better ground this side of Christmas.</p><p>Returning to the third race on the card in which McGarry was down the field, the Smiths ran <b>Blaster Yeats </b>who hadn’t been seen since chasing home the well-handicapped Thomas MacDonagh at Wetherby last November.</p><p>I felt that was a massive run at the time from a young horse that was on the small side and quite backward, and was looking forward to seeing him in the flesh again.</p><p>It was rather disappointing to see that he hadn’t grown much, although a lot of Yeats progeny can lack for size. Like the other Smith horses I’ve seen so far (small sample) he did not look great in his coat and was a bit on edge.</p><p>The money came for him however, I suspect a result of having had a couple of shock novice hurdle winners recently the assumption is that the yard is ahead of where they are usually at for the time of year. I’d treat that view with some caution at this time.</p><p>Blaster Yeats showed up well for a long way prior to fading out of contention, however this is a horse I will be keeping a very close eye on going forward, hopefully he will take training well and gain some condition. The 2m3f was on the sharp side and I see him as improving over further when the freshness is out of him.</p><p><b>Raecius Felix</b> is one to put in the locker for the spring. Immature mentally, he looked in fantastic condition prior to winning at Kelso the time before and I fancied him strongly to back that up with another win here, however he needed to dig deep to get past the well-handicapped Oak Vintage.</p><p>This Stowaway gelding had had a kind introduction to racing under Ruth Jefferson, which is only now bearing fruit for new connections. A very athletic individual, he’s quite fizzy and arguably ran up a little light here and the trainer told me she will now ease off him for the time being.</p><p>A fine and natural jumper, he is every bit a ‘Saturday horse’ of the future (in the north at least) and I have him on a mark of 132 following this performance, so another rise of 7lb or so should still leave some leeway.</p><p>He is thought to need good ground so whether they’ll keep him in training this winter with a view to picking their way through the better ground meetings I’m not sure.</p><p>While he has plenty of natural speed, as he matures and settles he will get 3m no problem, so we can look forward to seeing him continue to improve further in the spring at the Aintree and Ayr festivals. </p><p>Runner-up <b>Oak Vintage </b>will also have to go back up half a stone but he has loads of leeway from here to his best form as he’s able to operate around the 120 mark. Although he was quietly fancied they felt, as did I, that he would benefit from the outing and I’d expect him to be winning before long.</p><p>It was very surprising that connections of <b>Eyeofthescorpion </b>chose to take on the fiendishly well-handicapped The Navigator in the closing race and not take up an easier option at Exeter the following day.</p><p>When winning at Huntingdon, it was clear to all that the further he went, the better he looked, so this drop in trip was a huge negative and he predictably couldn’t handle his main market rival in the closing stages.</p><p>He lost nothing in defeat, but will now have to race from a 7lb higher mark. No matter - I had already elevated him to a mark of 120 and the manner of that previous victory suggests he has bundles in hand and this good-looking, rangy individual will be back winning again before long, provided of course he returns to a trip of 2m4f and beyond.</p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-33079079388167706102020-10-01T10:06:00.003+01:002020-10-01T10:09:50.534+01:00Warwick - October 1<p>There will be plenty of opportunities to make money this month so just because the National Hunt season is ramping up and the 'horses to follow' publications are out in force, let's not get ahead of ourselves.</p><p>The racing today at Warwick and Ffos Las looks very competitive and most of it makes little appeal from a betting perspective at first glance this morning.</p><p>The ground appears to be on the quick side at Warwick despite yesterday's rain - hopefully it will ride genuinely good and no faster otherwise we may see some non-runners.</p><p>The handicap chase at 2.20 is worth closer inspection.</p><p>Morning favourite Court Master is popular after winning twice in three starts last term, and is likely to remain well-handicapped based on his PTP (beat Jarvey's Plate) and bumper form.</p><p>However, he does shape like an out-and-out stayer to me, grinding out victory over 3m on soft ground at Newbury last December. </p><p>He was highly-tried in the Timeform race at Cheltenham that worked out so well, but wasn't seen since and has had further wind surgery (his third on record) in the interim.</p><p>I can't see him getting anything other than a positive ride at a track where tactical speed can be important, particularly on this type of ground. I just wonder whether this will all happen too fast for him.</p><p>A couple I put a line through quite easily were Denmead and Global Tour. The former was useful but exposed on the Flat, and has overcome what has been described as a nervy temperament by landing a couple of novice hurdles. </p><p>He's one of those Flat breds that does have the size for fences, but I doubt whether he has the mental capabilities, and he bled on his chase debut last time out. He has plenty to prove.</p><p>Global Tour has progressed through the ranks winning five hurdles before picking up a weak race on his first chase start. That form is shallow in the context of today's race, and his jumping went to pot at Perth last time.</p><p>Nightfly was a consistent mare at this sort of level but has only seen the track once in 18 months. I would, however, expect C Longsdon to have her pretty straight and she has won off this sort of mark.</p><p>That said she'll need a virtual PB today which looks a tall order given her lack of recent activity. B Hughes is an interesting booking with J Burke presumably claimed to ride Minella For Me.</p><p>The Tom George-trained 10-year-old is easily overlooked, being a rather weak finisher and his triumphs coming in a lower grade.</p><p>We are therefore left with Bootlegger, who arrives with a huge fitness advantage over all bar Global Tour, having shaped nicely over timber last time out in a competitive race at Perth.</p><p>A nice chasing type, he was jumping very nicely until a mistake four out at Worcester this time last year, after which he came home in his own time. A two month absence suggests he may have picked up a niggle.</p><p>Thereafter he found his form returned to hurdles, winning at Doncaster before running a sound race at Kempton in a really competitive C2 event.</p><p>The sort to benefit from a run or two, I'm expecting him to produce a career best effort today with his sound jumping technique an asset, rather than a drawback.</p><p>If the going is as lively as predicted he'll need Court Master to set good fractions, as he appears to be a strong galloper that wouldn't be seen to best effect coming off a slow pace. </p><p>On balance, and despite a patchy profile overall, it looks to me as though Bootlegger has been found a good opportunity off top weight having sneaked into this 0-125 contest, off a mark that is 4lb lower than when he went close over hurdles last time.</p><p>UNFORTUNATELY...the odds have moved since I started writing this piece half an hour ago and as of 10am Bootlegger is 3/1 best price which is at the lower end of expectations.</p><p>At nearer 4/1 (or 5 on the machine) I'll be looking to back the horse, who is ridden by H Cobden for the first time. Court Master is the obvious threat with Nightfly the possible value play against the two market principals should they fail to meet expectations.</p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-54558428068673695732020-09-09T08:44:00.006+01:002020-09-09T10:29:37.308+01:00Uttoxeter September 09<p>Starting with the 4.10, undoubtedly this will be a competitive 0-125 handicap chase over 3m2f on what will hopefully remain good ground.</p><p>I like to take on what I call weak favourites however it cannot be said that Sirobbie doesn't deserve his position as market leader following his debut effort over fences here seven weeks ago.</p><p>A four-time course winner over hurdles, the Arakan stayer rallied after becoming detached to chase home the progressive Young Wolf, who I have marked down as an ideal Scottish National type (via the Ultima at Cheltenham).</p><p>That novice form is sound yet the assessor has seen fit to give Sirobbie an opening perch of 124, just 4lb above his last winning hurdles mark. His chance is an obvious one but i'd need to see him jump a little better before backing him at 3/1 in this sort of field.</p><p>The interesting one for me is the Oliver Sherwood trained Jersey Bean. </p><p>Still only seven, this dour stayer (son of the mighty Court Cave) progressed nicely at the start of the 2018-19 season when he found the 2m7f at Market Rasen too sharp in a bid for a hat-trick of wins from a mark of 136.</p><p>Raised another 6lb for that, he found higher grades beyond him before attentions were switched to fences, his debut coming in May '19 when I've marked him down as being over the top.</p><p>Three runs last winter saw him regress, not clicking over fences before a return to hurdles that saw him tailed off on ground far too soft.</p><p>This is a horse that relishes a sound surface - his Ascot bumper win also came on good ground - while he has won twice before when very fresh. </p><p>From that peak rating of 142 he now goes off 120, while the addition of blinkers show intent and he looks certain to be ridden prominently throughout.</p><p>Jumping is a worry on the back of three modest efforts but new jockey Brendan Powell is riding with much confidence at present, and we can presume he has schooled in the blinds at home.</p><p>The yard is in fine form, with four individual winners in the last fortnight (one DQ'd) so Jersey Bean ticks plenty of boxes.</p><p>The main thing of course is price, and I expected him to be chalked up around the 7/1 mark, so anything above 8s is good value (has been 10s and 12s).</p><p>He may well be taken on for the lead by Kings Temptation, who has taken his form to another level this summer, although while looking impressive the bare form of his latest success leaves him with even more to find.</p><p>The early jousting and jumping may be important in the final analysis, although my assumptions around Jersey Bean's fitness and stamina give cause for comfort.</p><p>Of the others, Monty's Award and Flying Verse are not that easy to win with and are looking a little high in the weights on the back of consistent summers. </p><p>Amateur is a potential dark horse but he failed to complete on his only start over fences to date so is passed over this time...there will be races to be won with him I suspect.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-76551886034138071612020-07-23T09:41:00.004+01:002020-07-23T09:49:26.680+01:00Uttoxeter July 23After a quiet week there is a race of interest today, a 0-140 contest over 2m4f. It doesn't look an easy race to weigh up however, and my tissue prices are quite different from the current odds.<br />
<br />
<b>3.10 Uttoxeter</b><br />
<br />
Western Miller; Front runner, winner of seven under rules but never from a mark this high.<br />
<br />
Monsieur Gibralter; A winning machine between the flags and in hunter chases, but 0/5 in handicaps and winless in six novice chases three summers back. His form in the spring before last appeared to be on another level, winning four hunter chases on decent ground showing a very high cruising speed and swift jumping. The question is whether he can translate that form to this handicap, and even if he can, will it be good enough to defy a mark of 138.<br />
<br />
Knockgraffon; Best form at Musselburgh in recent seasons and never going at Market Rasen recently. Will like the ground but plenty to prove here.<br />
<br />
De Plotting Shed; Routinely shirked the issue when trained in Ireland but new lease of life for current yard in 2019, and clearly a useful sort when on song. Another that looks a shade high in the weights on balance, but not implausible that he could take a hand if fully tuned up.<br />
<br />
Lovato; Useful on the flat in Germany, although regularly turned over at short odds and second seven times, winning once at long odds on. Turned the corner for Dr Newland, winning four times over timber and then won his second chase start here in September from an 8lb lower mark. I rated that as fairly weak form for the grade with those in behind looking poorly handicapped. Flopped either side of that win and has his own way of jumping, which comes with being bred for the Flat.<br />
<br />
Mercian Prince; A fine servant to connections being 7/24 over fences before going missing last season in the face of a lofty rating and relentlessly soft ground. Probably didn't achieve a great deal in winning a novice hurdle over a week ago but that would have helped with his confidence, having had a third breathing operation. Undoubtedly the best handicapped horse in the race and a very sound jumper, for all that he may favour going right handed.<br />
<br />
River Frost; Gained some consistency last season on soft ground when getting his jumping together but resumes on a tough mark and this ground is lively enough.<br />
<br />
Ronava; Veteran looks on a stiff mark after two wins in lesser company last term.<br />
<br />
Solar Impulse; An infrequent winner but talented enough and often travels very well, however has never fully seen out this trip. Likely to run his race from a competitive mark which could see him finish fourth or fifth.<br />
<br />
Scoop The Pot; Becoming dangerously well handicapped on best form but wants much further and trainer's jumpers have been running round at the back since the resumption.<br />
<br />
Betting;<br />
10/3 Mercian Prince<br />
7/2 Monsieur Gibralter<br />
7 Lovato<br />
9 De Plotting Shed<br />
10 Western Miller<br />
12 Solar Impulse<br />
14 Knockgraffon P<br />
20 Ronava<br />
40 River Frost<br />
50 Scoop The Pot<br />
100%<br />
<br />
Conclusion; I came into the race thinking Mercian Prince was the one I wanted to back at odds of around 4/1 but that has so far not materialised. This is the first time he's been on the go so early in the season and that may be due to a preference for a sound surface. Four handicap wins have come from a higher mark than he runs off today so his chance is obvious, the concern being whether he's become a bit shop-worn and the fact he's now had three breathing ops. If he drifts to 4.6 on the machine I may be tempted.<br />
<br />
I did think M Gibralter would be put in shorter and at 5/1 it is quite tempting to pay to find out if he can translate that impressive hunter chase form to a more competitive format. The mark is undoubtedly at the top end of his range, but if he's improved again from eight to nine (possible) he can win. Lovato has been well backed but he's not the sort of horse I take to and although you could say he has most scope for improvement having had just three starts over fences, I've taken a dim view of his mark and question his jumping prowess. I could be wrong. Of the others, only De Plotting Shed has the ability to trouble the front two in the market from today's handicap mark, should he be 'fully fit'.<br />
<br />
Pace-wise Western Miller could have things his own way in front and if so he might keep on for a place. If backing Mercian Prince you wouldn't want him to get involved in an early joust for the lead and the jockey should be happy to take a lead on this occasion.Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-5396346492519002032020-07-16T09:03:00.000+01:002020-07-16T09:08:29.233+01:00Uttoxeter July 16Today I want to look at the second of three chases on the card, the 1.45, which is a 0-110 over the minimum trip.<br />
<br />
Eyesopenwideawake; A winner on chase debut in 2017 when going typically strongly from the off, but has endured two absences of almost a year and showed very little in between breaks. However, he's 10lb below that winning mark and would have more class than the opposition should things click back into place.<br />
<br />
Tikkinthebox; Not easy to assess, as his best form came two years ago when racking up three wins over fences. Just 1/12 since that spree, landing a very weak race from a much reduced mark last September. Still well handicapped on old form, but has become very hit and miss, often travelling well only to find very little for pressure.<br />
<br />
Fort De l'Ocean; An athletic, nimble youngster who went close a couple of times last term and remains on the same mark. Jumped and travelled well in a fast run race on reappearance, having been an unconsidered 33/1 shot. Still only five but a really sound jumper, appears to go on any ground and the trainer had a winner at Southwell this week.<br />
<br />
Bagan; There was a hint of a fluke about his Stratford win last summer and he failed to back it up off a 7lb higher mark. Poor on softer ground but overall suspicion is that he wants a longer trip.<br />
<br />
Inca Gold; Son of Galileo and not very big for fences, 0/9 in this sphere but interesting they are persevering. Still, his jumping on course has been very scratchy and he can't be supported yet despite a sliding mark. Clearly though, he is one with the potential to be a market steamer.<br />
<br />
Little Stevie; Just 3/43 under rules but plenty of placings and reliable to a point, although lost his way in the winter on softer ground. Mark is just about winnable and Johnson back on board but is vulnerable to potential improvers.<br />
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No No Cardinal; Four wins on the bounce last year have left him too high in the weights and he doesn't have the assistance of a claimer either.<br />
<br />
Hillview Lad; Success in a belated chase debut last summer but very little since and shouldn't really be good enough.<br />
<br />
Dragon Khan; Winner last summer from a basement mark but lost his way since and 6lb wrong in the weights.<br />
<br />
Betting;<br />
3 Fort De L'Ocean<br />
7/2 Little Stevie<br />
5 Tikkinthebox<br />
8 Inca Gold<br />
10 Bagan<br />
12 Eyesopenwideawake<br />
20 Hillview Lad<br />
25 Dragon Khan<br />
33 No No Cardinal<br />
Around 103%<br />
<br />
Plenty of pace on here, and presuming Eyesopenwideawake is allowed to bowl along he should lead them out, No No Cardinal and Tikkinthebox can also lie handy and expect Little Stevie to be prominent. This scenario should suit the strong travelling Fort De L'Ocean who is expected to see his race out better with a newly fitted tongue-tie and a solid run under his belt. He has already been backed but is quite a confident choice at 3/1. Little Stevie is a worthy adversary and it's not hard to see him being thereabouts, but I'll be throwing some of the petty cash at Eyesopenwideawake at a big price in case he gets away from them, and in the hope they have found the key to him. Nothing else appeals.Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-11890077852717981812020-07-14T11:04:00.001+01:002020-07-14T11:04:14.932+01:00Southwell July 14Four more handicap chases to mull over, but having mulled them over, there doesn't seem to be much to get excited about. The highest quality race on the card is a 0-130 over 3m+ and is worth a closer look.<br />
<br />
As You Like; 4/13 over fences with four second places, the last victory coming off a mark of 120, that's 9lb lower than today. Thoroughly unexposed over 3m but his style of running (likes to be held up) suggests he should get home here, while a running-on third in a decent race at Newbury on his penultimate start is encouraging on several fronts. Does jump low at times, and will need to avoid serious errors (obvs). A big plus is that he seems to go very well fresh.<br />
<br />
Viens Chercher; Hit a rich vein of form last spring before going right off the boil, in common with all from the Bowen yard. Not entirely convincing with attitude at the best of times but is now back on his last winning mark and stays well. Front runner. Passed over for now.<br />
<br />
Forth Bridge; Well bred for the Flat but has developed into a fair chaser, albeit only 1/16 over larger obstacles with six second places. Essentially high in the weights and out of sorts last winter after dotting up in a weak C2 event the previous March. Is now below that last winning mark and formerly very consistent on goodish ground over intermediate trips. Seems to just about stay 3m but susceptible to a stronger finisher. Trainer has had a winner and gone close with another since lockdown.<br />
<br />
Station Master; In decent form in good ground novice events last spring but essentially badly handicapped thereafter and softer ground no good to him in the winter. Possibly not straight forward, but stays very well and if putting in a clear round (can make mistakes) could go well from career low mark, tongue-tie added to cheekpieces. Trainer had a winner at Bangor on Sunday.<br />
<br />
Mr Mafia; Bettered previous form in third of three wins last summer, including twice here, but generally competes at a slightly lower level and mark a bit high starting out this time, beaten miles on resumption here two weeks ago.<br />
<br />
New Quay; Got it together first time out two seasons ago from an 8lb lower mark but never really built on that, including in first two chases on soft last term. Not the easiest to weigh up, as this is his first go at 3m which could suit although can run keenly.<br />
<br />
Knockrobin; I had him marked down as one to be wary of but he then won a weakish event at Catterick looking pretty straight forward. Reverted to type at Doncaster next time though, pulling himself up when looking all over the winner between the last two fences. Often finished weakly in the past and not certain to see out this 3m trip anyway.<br />
<br />
Odds;<br />
7/2 As You Like<br />4 Station Master<br />
9/2 New Quay<br />11/2 Forth Bridge<br />9 Mr Mafia<br />9 Knockrobin<br />16 Viens Chercher<br />
<br />
This is as close to 100% as I could get. As You Like looks a pretty solid proposition and deserves to head the market for all that there is a slight stamina doubt. There is a sense of unfinished business about Station Master who looked like he could be much better than this a couple of years ago. He may just see it out better than favourite, but having shortened in the market doesn't represent much value at tissue price. Knockrobin makes no appeal at current odds and a place lay might be worth looking at.<br />
<br />
<b><i>This is my 400th blog post since inception over six years ago. Hopefully it has provided some insight along the way. Be lucky</i></b><br />
<br />
<br />Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-54495895338627718222020-07-10T08:51:00.000+01:002020-07-10T09:33:03.780+01:00Market Rasen July 10Four chase races once again as racing returns to the Lincolnshire venue, rails are out so we are looking at almost a furlong extra for some races, at least half that for all.<br />
<br />
The going is once again described as good, good to soft in places with 24mm of rain having fallen this week alone, this coming on top of 10mm of watering applied on Monday and Tuesday.<br />
<br />
The recent meeting at Stratford became a farce for betting purposes with a small amount of overnight rain having a huge impact on over-watered turf. That track has suffered greatly from irrigation in the last few years although that begs the question, How many tracks have you looked after?<br />
<br />
We all have our own view on watering and are entitled to them. And while the proper judges in the racing will tell you the going is the most over-used metric in the game, personally I like to know what type of ground we are going to be racing on before placing a bet.<br />
<br />
As if there aren't enough variables already.<br />
<br />
Southwell is another place that gets plenty of irrigation and with the chases at the front end of their cards, I'm always more tentative when I bet there in case the going has turned to sponge.<br />
<br />
Thankfully we have a couple of novice hurdles early on today's card although the chase track can ride a good bit softer...it certainly did last season.<br />
<br />
I've only taken an interest in the first race over larger obstacles (1.00), which I priced up because I suspected the front end of the market would be underpriced, and so it has proved.<br />
<br />
Envoy Special has been chalked up as 3/1 favourite purely on the fact he's trained by P Nicholls, which, okay, is fair enough. I called it wrong with Captain Buck's at Stratford and Envoy Special is another that hasn't found winning under rules easy.<br />
<br />
Placed three times and bombed on three other occasions, he's never looking like winning in any of them, albeit in decent handicap company. The hood/tongue tie combination remains and while the great trainer can of course turn it around, he's one to oppose in a tidy little novice chase.<br />
<br />
What he does have is experience over much of the field, and those that have already had a go haven't looked that great, while others are coming to it a bit late in the day.<br />
<br />
Notnow Seamus didn't get it together for D Skelton last season after going through the handicap over hurdles, he's a big horse although Flat bred, and needs good ground.<br />
<br />
Ballyhome likes it at Market Rasen with two wins and second over timber, however his latest win came off a mark of 121 and the age of nine may have reached his peak. Not that big, he failed to cope with bad ground here over fences after sprawling on landing in a two horse race. Better is expected now but he's another I made a bigger price.<br />
<br />
Forecast is 3/17 over hurdles and made an okay debut over fences last season behind the really promising Schiehallion Munro, but that was a way below his best over timber and he is a very sturdy individual that lacks scope for fences.<br />
<br />
He makes his debut for Dr Newland, who isn't quite firing just yet. Likes to come from behind, which may not be easy here.<br />
<br />
That essentially leaves three of the more interesting ones.<br />
<br />
Henrietta Bell gets the mares allowance and had plenty of experience in the last calendar year, winning three times including off 120 in a handicap.<br />
<br />
She's a game staying type that can front run, but she may lack the basic ability of some of these, so will need to jump very well to land this on her chase debut. Not implausable, of course.<br />
<br />
The Sweeney will be popular with the Lavelle yard in flying form, with this one having won twice here last summer latterly off 128.<br />
<br />
The nagging question in my mind is why they haven't sent him over fences before now, having had a total of 16 runs over timber and already going on nine years of age.<br />
<br />
His form flattened out last autumn and while we can expect his best effort today, running to 130 may not be good enough.<br />
<br />
One I expect is capable of a personal best in this race is No Hidden Charges, trained by Neil Mulholland who went close to winning at Stratford with a decent novice chaser in Scardura.<br />
<br />
The seven-year-old took an age to get his act together in Irish Points two years ago prior to winning twice, before picking up a trio of novice hurdles last spring for current connections.<br />
<br />
He then spent the serious part of the season in much higher grade, acquitting himself well at big odds in Class 2 events, looking every inch a chasing type.<br />
<br />
With stamina proven and all that experience between the flags behind him, I'm expecting T Scu to play catch me if you can on the son of Scorpion, for whom the ground should be okay so long as it's not proper soft.<br />
<br />
In a 101% book I made him the marginal favourite at 9/2 so at general price of 5/1 he rates a decent enough bet as there are too many question marks about all the others. Henrietta Ball and The Sweeney are the others that look a bit bigger odds than they should be.<br />
<br />
The 1.30 is interesting in that there could be plenty of pace on with two or three that like to press from the front, and in a race where few appealed I thought old Dandridge might fall in on another drop in grade.<br />
<br />
This is trainer Charlie Longsdon's time of year and Dandridge has yet to face C4 opposition. With that fast pace virtually assured, an each-way investment might be a bit of fun.<br />
<br />
The other two chase races made little appeal.<br />
<br />
Good luck.Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-24752554095587150972020-07-08T10:39:00.001+01:002020-07-08T11:10:00.368+01:00Stratford July 8Our cup truly runneth over today with four chase races to examine as racing returns to the home of The Bard.<br />
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They've had plenty of rain in recent weeks and although it's only good to soft in places you could envisage it being a little worse than that, but we'll have a much better idea after the first two races.<br />
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<b>12.45</b><br />
A very decent novices chase for the time of year with four horses rated in the 130s and another three in the 120s.<br />
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Seddon's form has by far the most depth to it and it is little surprise that he has been put in quite short despite this being his first start since the back-end of the 18-19 season.<br />
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He was fairly consistent in group company as a novice hurdler while looking rather paceless over the minimum trip and also over further, and he looks sure to benefit from 3m in due course.<br />
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I wasn't that taken by his physique or the shape he made over hurdles and while he may have the best engine he's not one to be taking short prices about here.<br />
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There are quite a few that are interesting, not just today but going forward, including the mare Diamond Gait, who looks sure to relish this better ground, and Scardura who was highly tried after making a good impression when winning his maiden hurdle.<br />
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Leapaway racked up a sequence two summers ago and justified his rating to a point in two defeats the following spring, and he looks like a chaser in the making with plenty of speed on his side.<br />
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Longhouse Sale looks speedy but has a problem when coming off the bridle, all his winning coming on a sound surface.<br />
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Beat The Judge has had a spin on the Flat but it remains to be seen if this son of Canford Cliffs will take to fences.<br />
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All told, it's probably a race to watch for all that I'm tempted to take on the favourite in some way.<br />
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<b>2.20</b><br />
Not much interest here as the market has narrowed it down to a couple, neither making much appeal at the odds.<br />
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<b>2.50</b><br />
This is a much weaker affair, a basement 0-100 handicap over the minimum trip, and a pretty poor one at that.<br />
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Wisecracker heads the market and will be popular after the trainer had a first-time-out winner at Uttoxeter in these colours, but this horse is no win machine having fallen in last time out in a race that took no winning.<br />
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Previously second five times over fences, he's more likely to chase one or two home after travelling well for much of the contest.<br />
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Peterborough has come in for support despite making little impression in four chase starts last term, his mark having tumbled as a result though and he languishes some 12lb below his winning hurdles number.<br />
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The selection here though is My Renaissance, who is generally kept busy throughout the summer months and had a pipe-opener on the level last month.<br />
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His four chase wins have come on tight left-handed tracks over the minimum trip, and he requires goodish ground to produce his best form.<br />
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He bolted up off a similar mark two years ago, and won from a much higher rating last August. Like most horses of his ability, he needs things to fall into place, but he can generally be relied upon to pay his way at this time of year and at 8/1 is a backable price.<br />
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<b>3.50</b><br />
An interesting race where Captain Buck's and Flying Verse head the market, but this looks wide open.<br />
The former will be popular with trainer P Nicholls going strongly after the break, but his chase record reads 0/12 with seven placings albeit from higher marks.<br />
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Enthusiasts will point to a victory between the flags in March as the start of a revival and while he's young enough to turn things around I'm not sure beating up a couple of 12 year olds warrants favouritism in a deep race for the grade.<br />
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Flying Verse won over C&D in October from this mark, but that was a weaker contest and he's a bit in and out. David Dennis has teamed up with T Symonds so it will be interesting to see if that alliance brings more success than the pair did as individuals...the horse stays further than this but may lack the class of some.<br />
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Bold jumping front runner Monbeg River has slipped into a C4 race for the first time in years and he could get several of these off the bridle if he's ready to go, but that would be of concern. He's been lacking his usual consistency of late hence the drop to a mark of 120.<br />
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Montys Award is a bit of a job horse, landing a touch a couple of seasons back before going down by a head 12 months ago having looked to have the race sewn up.<br />
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Both those races were at Worcester and he's clearly best suited by a left handed oval, so this should suit and he loves decent ground...if it does turn out to be softer than the official this would count against him.<br />
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His record is patchy, so I'm hoping he's best caught fresh and back down to a mark of 118 be should be thereabouts.<br />
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Cut The Corner might be competitive from a depleted mark but rather like Monbeg River he's essentially been regressing at the age of 12 and it's difficult to part with the hard-earned having taken a year out.<br />
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Monty's Award is the play here in the hope that a sound gallop will see him travel deep into the race.<br />
<br />Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-17269038854611048802020-07-06T10:27:00.001+01:002020-07-06T10:36:42.561+01:00Uttoxeter July 6There doesn't seem a great deal of point getting financially involved in the big race of the day, the Summer Cup at 3.30, with so many 'ifs' and 'buts'surrounding the entire field.<br />
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At this stage of the jumps season I'm not really looking too hard to find betting opportunities, there will be one or two along the way that jump out and that will do for the time being.<br />
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Very few of them look to be well handicapped at the current time, Brian Boranha possibly the best looking at the weights and one that could travel best through the race, however his finishing effort has never been much to shout about. A possible back-to-lay but nothing more.<br />
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Bandsman will be ridden cold as they step him up to beyond 3m for the first time, but there's not much evidence to suggest he wants a stamina test.<br />
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Padleyourowncanoe isn't bred for it either and with only two runs over fences to his name he doesn't make much appeal near the top of the market for all that his unexposed profile over obstacles suggests he could have more to offer at some stage.<br />
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I suppose if you look at it like that, the two market leaders are worth opposing and take out around 30% of the Betfair market, so there should be some value elsewhere but it's too much of a guess-up for me, on their day you could make a fair case for most of them.<br />
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The 4.30 was much more interesting as I quickly put a line through quite a few, what's more a quick look at the early tissue prices suggested there was an angle with King's Temptation put in at 11/4.<br />
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I wouldn't say I was B Case's biggest fan and he's only had two winners in handicaps coming off this sort of break in the last five years, one of which was Croco Bay's Cheltenham Festival victory which came in at 180 on the machine.<br />
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He ran no sort of race off a similar absence last April when 2/1fav so without going into further analysis that I feel is against him, he's one to oppose although looking at the odds this morning that seems to be the general consensus.<br />
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Wilberdragon doesn't win out of turn and although he's bred to stay this 3m2f trip, the evidence so far suggests that the flat 2m7f of Worcester is about his limit, although you can understand them having a try as he's pretty exposed over shorter trips.<br />
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Midnight Magic was quietly progressive at a lower level during the first half of last season, since when he's undergone wind surgery. Stamina is definitely his forte and of all the runners here you'd expect him to be the fittest coming from the Pipe kennel.<br />
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He's been very slow to get his act together but they've persevered and he could be one that keeps pulling out a bit more as he gets older. This 0-120 is a level up on what he's usually performed at though, and he will need to find that further progression to win this, but he's respected.<br />
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The most interesting is perhaps Lord Getaway, who was shaping up into a fair staying chaser a couple of seasons back but lost his way last winter.<br />
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Let's get the negatives out of the way; he's a bit of a one-paced plodder and a big unit prone to shoddy jumping, however he was fine at Cheltenham on good ground when fourth in a decent contest over a year ago and a return to that form would be more than enough to take this.<br />
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He ran okay on his first two starts last term on tight tracks that wouldn't have been to his liking, but was then out of sorts in an Exeter marathon before having a couple of spins over hurdles, which wouldn't be his bag.<br />
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Hopefully the five month absence has freshened him up and this looks a good race to start him back. He is actually 1/1 at the track after grinding out a hurdles victory in the quag so does tick a few boxes, the main point for me being that he's the class act of the race if fit enough to show it, and that he avoids any serious errors.<br />
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Of the others Pride of Parish might be interesting from a stable adept at bringing one back from an absence, but he might not get home if this does become a stiff test. Even his best Point form might not be good enough.<br />
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The Happy Chappy has been a desperate disappointment since winning twice in 2017, looking an increasingly hard ride and he's without headgear today. He's had two wind ops, and is hard to back even knowing that the talent is there to win off a much reduced mark.<br />
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Still Believing shows bits and pieces of form at the age of 12 and is handicapped to go close, but the headgear she's worn for her three most recent wins is left off, and is not one to have a great deal of faith in.<br />
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Let's look at the betting, as of 10.30am.<br />
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The firms are 10/3 the field although 4/1 on the machine for Midnight Magic. There's not much 5/1 about Lord Getaway and to be honest 9/2 is probably about right as there are question marks over his well-being. The one that looks over-priced if anything is Still Believing at 12/1, so if I do end up playing this race I'll be having a small bet on Lord Getaway, with a few shekels on the Evan Williams veteran who I reckon should be more like an 8 or 9/1 shot in this field.Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-88088403011140776562020-07-01T08:52:00.001+01:002020-07-01T09:51:11.553+01:00Southwell July 1Welcome back! Must admit I've never been much of a fan of summer jumps but after three blank months and more it'll be great to see the twig-hoppers back in action.<br />
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Should this burst of enthusiasm last I'll be putting down some thoughts on these pages in the coming weeks and months, focusing on the handicap chases.These are not 'tipping' pieces, although I'll make it clear whether or not I intend to bet.<br />
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The first two races at Southwell today are the subject of today's focus with all eyes on the P Nicholls-trained Nineohtwooneoh in the opening <b><u>12.00</u></b>, a 0-105 novice handicap. After showing little in novice hurdles, he came good at the second time of asking off a mark of 94, dotting up at Musselburgh when well-backed.<br />
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He looked a big, staying chase type and a natural jumper, and I doubt if a 10lb higher mark would stop him today. The main problem with him is that he has been reported to have a breathing problem on at least three occasions, and presumably the lockdown has prevented the trainer from sending him for surgery.<br />
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He looks like he might have to do everything on the bridle, as he looked one paced on his next outing at Taunton, when he again showed a propensity to hang badly right under pressure. Today's better ground will surely suit in that regard, and he sneaks into a race that won't take much winning.<br />
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Here's a look at some of the opposition;<br />
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Glengar; Looked a safe conveyance when last seen on Boxing Day but faded very tamely after travelling well into the straight.<br />
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Short Flight; Trainer can ready one after a break but it's almost two years since he was last seen, and goes without the visor that seemed to bring about improvement.<br />
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Oxwich Bay; A thoroughly disappointing individual, runner-up six times over timber usually finding very little for pressure, whether held up or ridden prominently. Chase form is of a higher standard but has failed to complete 3/7 starts.<br />
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Zen Master; Another flawed individual who is 1/23 under rules, not usually finding a great deal and often goes freely.<br />
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Tazka; Decent juvenile filly but struggled in handicaps as a result, on a more realistic mark now starting out over fences.<br />
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The Last Bar; Winless mare for these connections in 10 hurdles starts, a 10lb drop for this first outing in two years at least gives her some leeway. More of a stayer.<br />
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Elle Est Grande; A big weak chasing type in the first half of last season, looking all over the winner two out only to lose three places from the last on penultimate start. That was over 3m, this trip and better ground, in addition to the switch to fences, means she is of interest.<br />
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Conclusion; With very little to make the market I thought the Nicholls horse would be around 11/8, 6/4 early doors as you're essentially betting he jumps a clear round and doesn't come off the bridle. Neither of those is guaranteed however, and while surprised by initial quotes of 5/2 and bigger, I won't be going in any shorter. Glengar and Oxwich Bay could travel furthest into the race but neither is expected to find enough off the bridle although the big weight concession may help the former. I made the note that Elle Est Grande would be 'much better in time' back in October and she is one I'll be watching keenly, it will be interesting if she is given a positive ride. The trainer has had a quiet month on the Flat which tempers enthusiasm somewhat and she has been very weak in the market so far, but a quote of 14/1 or bigger will tempt me to play very small each-way.<br />
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<b><u>12.30</u></b><br />
A Class 3 0-135 over 2m headed by the Skelton-trained Azzuri.<br />
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Azzuri; 5/16 over fences, however at around 2m on good ground his form is 1131141. Was being targeted at the spring festivals after getting re-handicapped on bad ground and is just 2lb higher than when hosing up at Ayr. Will face rivals for the lead but he's very quick and a fast, fluent jumper.<br />
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Tonto's Spirit; Paying for consistency on a stiff enough mark.<br />
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Tidal Watch; Set to win last summer when coming down at the last, 7lb higher now but that didn't look a particularly strong race. Flat bred.<br />
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Cracking Destiny; Improved for new yard and held off this mark when last seen over fences, travels strongly so should be suited by a strong run race.<br />
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Goldencard; With a new yard and likely to need the run and he looks high in the weights in this company.<br />
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Capital Force; Modest strike rate and not the type to find much off the bridle, although finally back to winning mark and would benefit from a pace burn-up.<br />
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Ballyvic Boru; Largely disappointing, popping up last autumn but unable to back that up off higher marks, and has now had two wind ops this year.<br />
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Ontopoftheworld; Front runner, well placed to win a handful of small field contests in 2018, off a year when below that form in February. Enough to prove from a yard that had just two winners in the September-March period.<br />
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Isaac Wonder; Not bred for fences but ok first season and does look the part, mark is a shade high on balance but likely to improve and had a very decent pipe opener on the Flat recently.<br />
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Atlantic Storm; Won over C&D for D Skelton two years ago but seems to save his best for Stratford, jockey doesn't have a great record on him and he might be one for smaller fields later in the year.<br />
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Conclusion; This looks tailor-made for Azzuri and providing he's away smartly from the gate should take the world of beating, especially if in the same form as when winning at Ayr over a year ago. Early quotes of 3/1 and bigger were too big, he was a well-backed 5/2 shot when landing that strong Ayr race and this Class 3 event is easier, so I see him going off shorter than that. Second favourite Cracking Destiny is capable of further improvement after progressing well last season, but does have a higher mark to overcome. The race should be run to suit his strong travelling style but wouldn't want to give Azzuri too much rope. If the likes of Tonto's Spirit and Ontopoftheworld help set a furious pace that could set things up for Cracking Destiny, or even Capital Force if he's on song, while Isaac Wonder is worth keeping an eye on but is a bit too inexperienced at this stage of his career.Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7243985140405531505.post-30920773834711715212020-03-17T10:08:00.002+00:002020-03-17T10:14:55.497+00:00Southwell, March 16Pretty modest stuff all told, thankfully just the six races and still soft ground.<br />
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The 0-110 handicap chase featured a few of the usual suspects, the majority of whom are totally unreliable, headed by the well-backed Shanty Alley.<br />
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Only six, I thought he'd go well at Doncaster last time only to bomb out completely; this was much easier, and he gave a good account until crumbling on landing over the third last.<br />
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That left Inch Lala, a tall light-framed mare who looked well, in a clear lead but stamina wasn't entirely assured and she was paddling after jumping two out, where recent winner <b>Silent Steps</b> emerged from out of shot after tailing herself off with a lap to go.<br />
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Remarkable stuff, or maybe not so considering the standard, with The Ogle Gogle Man intent on taking as much birch home with him as possible.<br />
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A mention for Dee Star, who was quite strong in the market but almost certainly prefers better ground, and looked as though he would come on for the outing.<br />
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A four-runner handicap chase was taken in some style by <b>Little Light</b>, who looked to have been perked up by the new headgear and travelled extremely well throughout, not needing to come off the bridle.<br />
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The pair that chased her home are disappointing types, Twotwothree lacking somewhat in size and probably not that keen on front-running, while better ground may be more his bag.<br />
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Chozen was a favourite of this column for a time but this strapping chaser has a mind of his own, and is an absolute liability at the obstacles. Hold up tactics were deployed on this occasion and he settled as well as he ever has, but is bred to stay 3m+ and is essentially a slow horse that wants to go faster.<br />
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A weak 0-110 hurdle went to <b>Haasab</b>, who has hit a rich vein of form and was well handled by Jonjo jr, getting on top after the last ahead of the likeable Atomix, who looked a promising sort many years ago and may yet achieve something based on this solid effort.<br />
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Arizona Glory is a big lengthy gelding for a young horse, and should be able to build on this, but the rest weren't much to write home about.<br />
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Sheshoon Sonny had shown loads of promise in decent company despite looking novicey, and was strongly fancied to get off the mark in the novices hurdle, but although hurdling with greater fluency was woefully one-paced after taking up the running and has to go down as disappointing receiving weight.<br />
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Eventual winner <b>Shantou View</b> was hard to weigh up, and was on and off the bridle throughout, but was strong where it mattered having enough in hand to see off the rallying Exelerator Express after the last.<br />
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The winner, just medium sized at present, looks more of a hurdler for next season unlike the runner-up, who has plenty of size and is quite a nice sort in the making. Rintulla, back in fourth, is rather unfurnished and needs time.<br />
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Two to go...City Never Sleeps nearly got home under a much more positive ride than at Catterick but was picked off late by <b>Shimba Hills</b>, paddock pick First Assembly sticking on for third despite looking paceless...he has the size to go over fences and may do better as the ground dries out.<br />
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Two recent winners dominated the market in the closing 0-100, but Fizzlestix ran as though the race came too soon, while Hang Tough, a very big horse who will need a fence sooner rather than later, was asked to do plenty on the front end and was another to be run down in the straight, emerging amateur Liam Harrison again seen to good effect on the winner <b>Oliver's Island</b>.<br />
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Jour A La Plage is a big lengthy unfurnished grey and may be worth revisiting next season.Adam Normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06937826410469340021noreply@blogger.com0