Wednesday, 9 September 2020

Uttoxeter September 09

Starting with the 4.10, undoubtedly this will be a competitive 0-125 handicap chase over 3m2f on what will hopefully remain good ground.

I like to take on what I call weak favourites however it cannot be said that Sirobbie doesn't deserve his position as market leader following his debut effort over fences here seven weeks ago.

A four-time course winner over hurdles, the Arakan stayer rallied after becoming detached to chase home the progressive Young Wolf, who I have marked down as an ideal Scottish National type (via the Ultima at Cheltenham).

That novice form is sound yet the assessor has seen fit to give Sirobbie an opening perch of 124, just 4lb above his last winning hurdles mark. His chance is an obvious one but i'd need to see him jump a little better before backing him at 3/1 in this sort of field.

The interesting one for me is the Oliver Sherwood trained Jersey Bean. 

Still only seven, this dour stayer (son of the mighty Court Cave) progressed nicely at the start of the 2018-19 season when he found the 2m7f at Market Rasen too sharp in a bid for a hat-trick of wins from a mark of 136.

Raised another 6lb for that, he found higher grades beyond him before attentions were switched to fences, his debut coming in May '19 when I've marked him down as being over the top.

Three runs last winter saw him regress, not clicking over fences before a return to hurdles that saw him tailed off on ground far too soft.

This is a horse that relishes a sound surface - his Ascot bumper win also came on good ground - while he has won twice before when very fresh. 

From that peak rating of 142 he now goes off 120, while the addition of blinkers show intent and he looks certain to be ridden prominently throughout.

Jumping is a worry on the back of three modest efforts but new jockey Brendan Powell is riding with much confidence at present, and we can presume he has schooled in the blinds at home.

The yard is in fine form, with four individual winners in the last fortnight (one DQ'd) so Jersey Bean ticks plenty of boxes.

The main thing of course is price, and I expected him to be chalked up around the 7/1 mark, so anything above 8s is good value (has been 10s and 12s).

He may well be taken on for the lead by Kings Temptation, who has taken his form to another level this summer, although while looking impressive the bare form of his latest success leaves him with even more to find.

The early jousting and jumping may be important in the final analysis, although my assumptions around Jersey Bean's fitness and stamina give cause for comfort.

Of the others, Monty's Award and Flying Verse are not that easy to win with and are looking a little high in the weights on the back of consistent summers. 

Amateur is a potential dark horse but he failed to complete on his only start over fences to date so is passed over this time...there will be races to be won with him I suspect.



2 comments:

  1. Nice. Ran a good race, jumped well, good place at a good price. Cheers

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  2. Jumped great, I like him. He'll win next time, somewhere like Fontwell or Warwick, needs 3m2f+.

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