Sunday, 8 October 2017

Horses to follow

Here we go again, trying to play Mystic Meg. It's just a bit of fun but will hopefully provide a few winners along the way.

Last year's six chasers to follow found Double W's, who won three times (9/4, Evs and 8/1), I Just Know, also three wins (2/1, 7/4 & 13/8) and Kilbree Chief (won 4/1).

I've only come up with five this time around, but then Creme Eggs aren't as big as they used to be...

Redemption Song (K Frost)
I had the pleasure of seeing this five-year-old mare on all three occasions she made the track last season and she didn’t do much wrong for a big, strong horse that will improve greatly over time.

After a pleasing debut where she stayed on from a long way back, she showed signs of greenness on her next outing before galloping on strongly to win by a wide margin.

She was done for a bit of toe in the mares final at Aintree, but that looked a particularly strong race this year and, once more, the way she stayed on suggests a stamina test will suit her.

Bought for £65k after landing an Irish PTP, I can see this half-sister to Starchitect quickly turn into a 130+ hurdler, and with her big frame I’d like to see her take on the men and take advantage of her mares’ allowance. A nice prospect.

Aliandy (K Bailey)
A Presenting gelding that hasn’t been easy to win with so far, but his refusal to settle in his races means his true ability has yet to be revealed.

A good looking sort, yet still backward last winter, he came through late to win at Southwell before going down by the narrowest of margins at Doncaster to a horse now rated 20lb higher over fences.

It could be that larger obstacles make a man of him while the application of a hood is also likely to help, but just the passing of summer and greater maturity could be all that’s needed for this horse to win races this season.

Soft ground and three miles shouldn’t be a problem but, like last season, I expect him to be competitive on better ground and over a shorter trip in the early part of the season.

Mortens Leam (P Sly)
From a wonderful homebred family, I expect the weak and backward Mortens Leam to take a step forward this season in the hope that another summer has done him the power of good.

He looked on the cusp of victory more than once last season, only to finish tamely, but I put this down to physical immaturity rather than a mental issue.

All his siblings have won races, including Actinpieces and Bonnet’s Vino, the dam and granddam were both honest mares, so there’s no reason why this one can’t win from his current perch of 104.

There is plenty of stamina in those bloodlines and while he wasn’t getting home over 2m last term, I think a hold-up ride over 2m4f could suit this horse, and while he has yet to race at Fakenham I can see that track suiting ideally for a trainer that does very well there.

Tanarpino (J Candlish)
This big, rangy six-year-old didn’t look quite right last season and as a consequence begins from an eye-catching mark of 123 this autumn.

Bought for and expensive-looking £80k after landing an Irish PTP, he took a while to find his feet before picking up a couple of handicap hurdles in soft ground in January 2016.

He ran okay in the EBF Final at Sandown that year, before winning another race off 120 at Ludlow on fairly decent ground.

He looked very likely to win on his chasing debut at Carlisle only to subside after the last, where it was assumed that lack of fitness cost him the race.

But subsequent efforts followed a similar vein leaving me to believe he was still on the weak side or that they found an underlying problem. If that’s the case, and they’ve sorted it out, I expect him to do very well this term on soft ground at up to and possibly beyond 3m.

He made a pleasing return over hurdles at Warwick last week, which should set him up for a return to the larger obstacles.

Just Minded (Mrs S Smith)
Gambled on from around 10s into 4s on his bumper debut at Carlisle, where victory proved he has a really good engine.

He seemed to struggle in the very worst winter ground in four starts over hurdles, but showed plenty of speed for a son of Kayf Tara to win at Market Rasen over the minimum trip.

Well built, he'll clearly make his mark as a chaser but I suspect he may have another couple of spins over timber first, where he shouldn't be too over-burdened by a mark of 122. A decent prospect.

2 comments:

  1. Thanks Adam, I'm sure they'll notch up a few between them.

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  2. I just want to say i really enjoy the blog Adam......thanks Neil

    ReplyDelete